Moderna Is Up 14% Today: Is It Outperforming Other Vaccine Stocks Like Merck and Pfizer?

Shares of Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA | MRNA Price Prediction) are up 14% to $68 and change in afternoon trading Friday, extending a remarkable run for the mRNA pioneer. Intraday, MRNA stock hit a new 52-week high of $69.29.

The rally easily outpaces peer vaccine makers. Merck (NYSE:MRK) stock is up 2% to $128, while Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) stock trades up 2% to $24 and change. On a single-session basis, Moderna stock is clearly leading the vaccine complex.

There’s no fresh same-day headline that cleanly explains the size of the move. Instead, traders appear to be extending momentum from a de-risking event last week, combined with bullish pipeline messaging and a likely short-covering component in a heavily traded name.

FDA Panel De-Risking and Pipeline Optimism Fuel the Run

The biggest catalyst in the rear-view mirror was an FDA advisory committee unanimously endorsing Moderna’s flu vaccine, mFlusiva (mRNA-1010), for adults 50 and older. That vote is a key step ahead of the August 5, 2026 PDUFA date, which would mark Moderna’s fifth approved product if cleared.

Moderna also held a Science Day this week highlighting its push beyond vaccines into oncology and autoimmune disease, including T-cell engagers, an in-vivo CAR-T program, and a personalized cancer vaccine, with messaging around a 2028 break-even goal. Jefferies raised its MRNA price target to $53 from $45, while keeping a Hold rating.

The fundamental backdrop has been improving. Moderna’s Q1 2026 revenue came in at $389 million, up 264% year over year and beating consensus by 65%, with the company reaffirming guidance for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 in its most recent 10-Q filing.

Moderna Leads, but Merck Won the Week

Zoom out and the picture gets more nuanced. Over the past month, Moderna stock is up 45%, while Merck stock has added 7% and Pfizer stock has fallen 6%. Year to date, the gap is even wider, with Moderna up 130% against Merck’s 21% gain and Pfizer’s modest 3% decline.

Pfizer remains the laggard. Comirnaty revenue fell 59% to $232 million in Q1 2026, underscoring how reliant the company still is on its non-COVID portfolio. Pfizer’s forward P/E ratio of 8x and 7% dividend yield keep it a value-and-income story rather than a momentum trade.

The Street Is Still Cautious on Moderna

For all the enthusiasm, the sell-side has not fully signed off. The MRNA stock consensus analyst target price sits at $43.45, well below today’s quote, with 16 Hold ratings against a smaller cluster of Buys and Sells. Leerink sits near $24 and Morgan Stanley near $33, meaning Moderna stock is running ahead of where most of the Street is positioned.

Moderna’s insiders have been net sellers as well, with 75 recent insider transactions tilting toward selling. That doesn’t invalidate the bull case, but it argues for keeping position sizes modest given MRNA stock’s volatility profile and forward P/E ratio of 23x on still-uncertain forward earnings.

What to Watch Next

The next clear data point is the August 5, 2026 FDA decision on mRNA-1010. Investors can also watch upcoming Phase 3 readouts for norovirus, intismeran in melanoma, and propionic acidemia, any of which could shift the medium-term narrative for Moderna.

For today, the answer to the title’s question is clear. On a single-day basis, and across the past month and year to date, Moderna stock is decisively outperforming Merck stock and Pfizer stock. Whether the stock can hold above the $65 level into next week may say more about momentum traders than about the underlying biotech story.