Live: Down 55% YTD, Can Tilray Brands Rebound With Tonight’s Q4 Earnings Report?
Quick Read
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TLRY reports Q4 FY2026 after the bell, with an adjusted EBITDA guide ranging from $62M to $72M serving as the credibility test for CEO Irwin Simon's global platform.
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International cannabis surged 73% last quarter while beverage revenue declined, gross margin slipped to 27%, and free cash flow hit -$24M.
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Shares are down 55% YTD but analysts hold a $9.05 target implying 125% upside if BrewDog integration and rescheduling commentary land well tonight.
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This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Tilray’s earnings.
Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Tilray to release earnings shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.
Tilray Brands Q4 Earnings Coverage Wrap-Up
That wraps up our initial coverage of Tilray’s Q4 results. Thank you for stopping by!
BrewDog Just Made Beverages Tilray’s Largest Business
Tilray’s Q4 beverage revenue grew 61% year over year to $105.6 million, surpassing cannabis, distribution, and wellness revenue during the quarter.
The BrewDog acquisition created a pro forma global beverage platform approaching $500 million in annual revenue. Tilray said it has already stabilized BrewDog and positioned the business for profitability while gaining access to its global brand, pub network, and hospitality platform.
The next test is margin improvement. Q4 beverage gross margin held steady at 38%, while the full-year figure declined to 36% from 39%. BrewDog is dramatically increasing Tilray’s scale, but management must now prove that scale can produce stronger returns.
Tilray Expects Revenue to Break $1 Billion in Fiscal 2027
Tilray Brands finished fiscal 2026 with record revenue of $915.5 million, up 11%, and management expects annual revenue to exceed $1 billion in fiscal 2027.
The company formally guided for adjusted EBITDA of $68 million to $75 million, representing double-digit growth from $61.1 million in fiscal 2026. At the midpoint, adjusted EBITDA would increase approximately 17%.
Tilray is entering the new year with four growing business segments and nearly $235 million in cash, restricted cash, and marketable securities. Delivering the $1 billion milestone alongside higher profitability would strengthen its transformation into a diversified global consumer-products company.
Tilray Q4 Earnings Are Out - Stock Up 4% on Results
Tilray Brands just reported Q4 earnings, with shares initially up 4% following the report. Here are the key numbers:
- Revenue: $281.7 million vs. $240.8 million expected
- Adjusted EPS: $0.05 vs. a $0.01 loss expected
- Adjusted EBITDA: $31.9 million, up 16% year over year
- Gross Margin: 32%, up 200 basis points
Fiscal 2027 Guidance:
Adjusted EBITDA: $68 million to $75 million
Quick Read:
Tilray crushed revenue expectations and unexpectedly turned a profit, while management forecast double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal 2027.
Beverage revenue surged 61% to $105.6 million, leading broad growth across all four operating segments and pushing annual revenue toward the $1 billion mark.
What Tilray Investors Need to Know Before the Bell
Tilray Brands (NASDAQ:TLRY) reports after the close with shares at $4.03, near the $3.80 52-week low.
The Math on Guidance
To hit the reaffirmed $62M-$72M FY26 EBITDA range, Q4 revenue likely lands in the $187M-$197M zone versus $224.54M a year ago. Watch cannabis gross margin, which slid to 27% last quarter.
Positioning and Triggers
Options desks lean bullish: full-chain put/call ratio is 0.19. History warns of whipsaws, though. The Q4 FY25 beat still produced a -17.55% earnings-day drop. A clean EBITDA range hit plus an FY27 preview could spark a squeeze; any guidance cut likely retests $3.80.
Tilray's Biggest Q3 Developments From Last Quarter
What Happened Last Quarter
Tilray Brands (NASDAQ:TLRY) Q3 FY26 results showed revenue of $206.73M versus $201.30M consensus, a 2.70% beat, though sales fell 22.96% YoY. Adjusted EPS of $0.02 missed the $0.07 estimate. Adjusted EBITDA rose 19% YoY to $10.71 million.
Management reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $62M to $72M, flagging Middle East tensions as a supply-chain risk.
Shares traded near $6.66 within an hour of release, closed at $6.55 the next day, and drifted to $6.75 a week later.
Key Takeaways: International cannabis revenue climbed 73%, Germany grew 43%, and Project 420 delivered $33 million in annualized savings, while beverage gross margin compressed to 32%. The BrewDog deal and 2027 Carlsberg partnership reset the beverage story.
Tilray's Bull vs Bear Case Ahead of Tonight's Q4 Earnings
With Tilray Brands (NASDAQ:TLRY) set to report Q4 earnings at 4:05 PM ET, here is a clean snapshot of the competing narratives heading into the release.
Bull Case
- International cannabis hit a company record last quarter with +73% YoY growth to $24.12M, and the distribution segment posted $82.96M (+35% YoY).
- Technicals are stretched: 14-day RSI sits at 32.82, and the analyst target of $9.05 implies 124.56% upside.
- Balance sheet supports patience with $204.62M cash and reaffirmed FY26 EBITDA of $62M-$72M.
Bear Case
- Revenue fell 23% YoY in Q3, and Q3 EPS missed by 71.43%.
- Beverage revenue dropped 21% in Q2 with margins compressing from 40% to 31%.
- TD Cowen cut its target to $5.00, citing permit delays and fuel surcharges.
- Composite sentiment reads bearish at 32.58.
Tilray’s 55% YTD Collapse Puts BrewDog and Cannabis Growth Under the Microscope
Tilray Brands reports fiscal Q4 earnings after today’s close, with its $62-$72 million adjusted EBITDA target anchoring expectations.
International cannabis revenue climbed 73% year over year last quarter, but beverage sales declined, and gross margin slipped to 27%. Investors will now look for evidence that BrewDog can stabilize the beverage portfolio while international cannabis growth continues and management provides fresh commentary on U.S. rescheduling.
Tilray’s market capitalization has fallen to approximately $497.5 million after shares dropped 55.37% year to date. A clean EBITDA result, beverage stabilization, and early BrewDog traction could reframe Tilray as a scaled global consumer-products platform. Another stumble would reinforce concerns that cannabis growth cannot overcome margin compression, beverage weakness, and cash burn.
Tilray Brands (NASDAQ:TLRY) reports Q4 FY2026 results today at 4:05 PM ET, with the call scheduled for 4:30 PM ET. Shares sit at $4.03, and tonight’s report tests whether CEO Irwin Simon’s global platform lands within its reaffirmed FY2026 EBITDA guide.
The Backdrop: Global Wins, Beverage Drag
Q3 FY2026 delivered a $206.73 million revenue beat, but adjusted EPS of $0.02 missed the $0.07 consensus by 71.43%. International cannabis grew 73% to $24.12M, and distribution hit a record $82.96M (+35%).
Beverage revenue declined, and consolidated gross margin slipped from 28% to 27%. TLRY is down 13.15% over the past month and 41.47% over the past year. Management reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of $62M to $72M, flagged Middle East geopolitical risk, and closed the BrewDog acquisition for approximately £40 million in cash.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q4 FY2026 Estimate | FY2026 Guide |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.02 | Not disclosed |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Not disclosed | $62M to $72M |
Sell-side coverage is thin: 3 buys, 7 holds, with a $9.05 average target. TLRY trades at $4.00 per share today, at 0.58x sales and 0.3x book, framing tonight as an EBITDA credibility test more than an EPS event.
What We’re Watching: BrewDog, Margins, and Rescheduling
Tonight, I’ll be watching FY2026 adjusted EBITDA. CEO Simon held the $62M-$72M range through three quarters, so any walk-down tonight signals that Q3 execution slippage bled through Q4.
Beverage matters most. Q2 FY2026 revenue fell 21% with gross margin compressing from 40% to 31%. BrewDog closed post-quarter, so I’ll parse integration commentary and any early framing on the 2027 Carlsberg partnership.
International cannabis is another interesting story, with three straight quarters of accelerating growth at +10%, +36%, and +73%. Simon called Q3 the company’s “best quarterly net revenue in Company history.”
Cash is the pressure point. Free cash flow deteriorated to -$24.19M in Q3, and cash sits at $204.62M, down 29.15% YoY. Project 420 delivered $33M in annualized savings, so operating leverage should surface in the SG&A line.
Finally, listen for Simon’s U.S. federal rescheduling framing. He has tied Tilray’s U.S. beverage and medical optionality to that timeline in every recent call.
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Day-of Move | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2026 | -71.43% | -5.1% | +6.68% | +9.45% |
| Q2 FY2026 | Miss vs $0.00 | +0.55% | +1.31% | +3% |
| Q1 FY2026 | In line | +22.09% | -18.1% | -26.67% |
| Q4 FY2025 | +200% | -17.55% | +6.15% | +10.21% |
On average, shares moved -1% seven days after earnings over the past year.
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Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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