The NASDAQ 100 has slipped into correction mode, and the reaction inside semiconductors isn’t what most market watchers expected. So far, this year’s biggest winners aren’t the AI kings; they’re the former laggards.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) stock is up 124% year to date (YTD), and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) stock is up 100%. Meanwhile, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) shares have added just 8%, and NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock is only up 3%. That flip has traders asking whether the pullback is a cue to lock in gains on the runners.
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) has ridden the same wave, with the ETF up 55%. That’s a strong number for a passive vehicle. Note, though, that the SOXX ETF embeds the concentration risk that investors need to think through before adding here.
The Rally That Reset Sector Leadership
Intel stock has more than doubled this year on renewed AI positioning, foundry progress, and improving execution. Intel’s Q2 FY2026 results, filed on July 23, 2026, showed revenue of $16.128 billion, up 25.4% year over year (YoY), which CEO Lip-Bu Tan called the company’s strongest growth in more than fifteen years.
Advanced Micro Devices stock has climbed on data center strength and expanding AI infrastructure deployments. AMD’s Q1 FY2026 revenue reached $10.253 billion, up 37.9% YoY, with Data Center revenue growing 57% to $5.775 billion.
The move has flipped conventional wisdom for AMD and Intel. For most of the AI era, NVIDIA and Broadcom set the sector pace while Intel struggled to define its place.
Valuations Tell a Different Story
Here’s the tension. Intel has no TTM P/E ratio because the company was not profitable over the trailing 12 months. Advanced Micro Devices trades at a TTM P/E ratio of 142.45x, an elevated multiple even for a fast-growing AI beneficiary.
Broadcom stock carries a TTM P/E ratio of 62.07x, and NVIDIA stock trades at 29.29x, the most reasonable multiple of the group. That’s a striking inversion. The two names with the largest rallies have the least attractive earnings-based valuations, while the two AI incumbents that lagged have the more grounded multiples.
If a valuation reset is underway, the math tilts against the runners. INTC and AMD shares are pricing in years of future execution; NVIDIA and Broadcom shares still trade on visible earnings power today.
Sector Rotation and the SOXX Question
The SOXX ETF holds all four names, which makes it a clean proxy for this debate. The fund’s YTD gain reflects the AMD and Intel surge, but its next leg depends on whether capital rotates back toward NVIDIA and Broadcom shares or stays with the recovery trade.
The concentration issue matters here. SOXX offers narrow semiconductor exposure with no diversification into software, industrials, or defensive names, and it carries an expense ratio of 0.34%. In a broader NASDAQ pullback, that focus cuts both ways, amplifying upside on rebound days and downside on rotation days.
What to Watch Next
Advanced Micro Devices is scheduled to report next, and Intel just guided to Q3 2026 revenue of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion. Market watchers can look for whether the correction deepens or stabilizes into those events, and whether analyst targets catch up to price. Intel’s analyst target price sits at $115.27, while AMD’s sits at $575.49.
Position sizing should reflect the volatility in these names. Intel stock carries a beta of 2.187, and AMD stock has a beta of 2.469, both well above the market. Investors may want to watch how leadership shifts through August before assuming that the rotation trade is finished.
If the valuation reset thesis holds, the profit-taking in INTC and AMD could persist even as the AI story stays intact for NVIDIA and Broadcom. The Intel Q2 earnings lays out the fundamental case that got INTC here. The question now for Intel is whether the share price already reflects it.
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