SpaceX Climbs 4%, AST SpaceMobile Rallies 9%, Rocket Lab Rises 5% as Traders Position for SpaceX’s Debut Earnings Report
Space stocks are surging ahead of SpaceX's first-ever public earnings report, but with prediction markets flagging a 70% chance of a miss and a 911-million-share lockup expiry days away, traders face a tense setup that could cut either way.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Space stocks are climbing Tuesday morning as traders position ahead of SpaceX‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) first-ever earnings report as a public company, due after today’s close. SpaceX stock is up 4% to $119, with AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares up 9% to $69 and Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) shares up 6% to $74.34.
The bounce arrives after a brutal July for the sector. SpaceX stock is down 27% over the past month, and Rocket Lab shares are down 26% over the same window. Today’s action looks more like an oversold, risk-on bounce into the report than a per-name catalyst.
SpaceX’s Debut Earnings Drive Sector-Wide Positioning
SpaceX will release its first public quarterly report today after the market close at 4 p.m. ET, followed by an analyst call at 4:30 p.m. ET led by SpaceX founder and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk. The company priced its June IPO at $135 in the largest U.S. debut ever, and SpaceX stock now trades 11% below that offer price and well off of its mid-June intraday high of $225.64.
Analysts expect a Q2 2026 net loss of around $1.9 billion, with revenue estimates near $6.9 billion driven by the Starlink business. SpaceX booked $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 with a net loss of more than $4.9 billion, and its AI segment reported $818 million in Q1 2026 revenue. Starlink subscriber growth and Musk’s tone on the call are among the key swing factors.
The prediction-market crowd leans cautious. Polymarket contracts assign a 70.5% probability that SpaceX misses on the print, though the same venues cluster August price expectations in the $125 to $135 range, suggesting traders expect stabilization after the release.
Sympathy Bid Lifts the Whole Complex
The rally has spread across satellite communications, launch services, and lunar names. Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) stock is up 7% to $14, Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) shares are up 6% to $22.75, and Virgin Galactic stock is up 2% to $2.87, a comparative laggard among these names.
The sector-wide bid also lifted the Procure Space ETF, which is up 4% to $47. The fund holds pure-play space names including Rocket Lab at 5%, AST SpaceMobile at 3.5%, and Planet Labs at 6.2% of net assets. The ETF’s concentration in a handful of volatile space names can amplify sector swings in both directions.
The July drawdown was broad. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Planet Labs, and SpaceX shares all dropped roughly 25% to 33% during that month. This set the stage for the current squeeze, and Reddit (NYSE:RDDT) sentiment on Rocket Lab has already flipped bullish, with one WallStreetBets thread accumulating 1,153 upvotes around a “generational buying opportunity” framing.
What to Watch Now
Beyond the earnings release, SpaceX’s IPO lockup expires Thursday, unlocking more than 911 million shares worth roughly $100 billion. Short sellers have profited betting against SpaceX stock, and short covering could cushion the unlock, but the supply overhang is real.
Traders can watch for whether the space-stock sector holds its gains into the 4 p.m. ET release, and whether Musk’s commentary on Starlink cadence, Starship progress, and launch backlog sets a constructive tone for peers. Reactions in ASTS and RKLB after hours may signal whether the sympathy bid extends into Wednesday’s session.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
