David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital trimmed its stake in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD) to 99,611 shares in the first quarter of 2026, while Daniel Loeb’s Third Point opened a brand-new position of 95,000 shares in the very same quarter, both disclosures landing in 13Fs filed roughly 45 days after quarter-end. The two stakes are almost the same size. They were reached from opposite directions.
That symmetry is the story. Einhorn spent much of the past two years talking about gold as a monetary refuge, arguing central banks and sovereigns were quietly reclassifying it as a reserve asset. Loeb, whose reputation was forged in equities and activist campaigns, sits far from the usual hard-money crowd. So when the loudest bull is quieter, and the equity guy is louder, you should notice.
Look at what GLD actually did while these decisions were being made. The ETF ran from around $437 on January 20 to roughly $454 by early February, then peaked in mid-February near $462. Since then, the trust has retraced. It sits at $375.77 as of August 3, down 9.62% from June 1 and 6.21% year-to-date. On a one-year basis, it is still up 20.25%. Einhorn sold into strength. Loeb bought near the top.
What the Macro Actually Says
Gold’s rally was built on a specific setup. Real yields were low, the Fed had been cutting, and core inflation kept grinding higher. The Fed executed three cuts totaling 75 basis points over the past year, ending at 3.75%, and has held there since December 11, 2025. That pause is the pivot. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed from a February low of 3.97% to 4.75% on July 31, its 99.6th percentile in the trailing year.
Higher nominal yields with the Fed on hold mean real yields are grinding higher, which is exactly the condition under which non-yielding gold loses relative appeal. Core PCE inflation is elevated, sitting in the 90.9th percentile of its trailing range, but the marginal buyer of gold cares about the direction of real yields, and that direction has turned. Einhorn, whoever else he is, is a macro-literate manager. Trimming into a rate-cut pause and a yield melt-up is internally consistent, even for a bull.
Loeb’s Read Is Different
Third Point runs a fundamentally equity-driven book, which makes this entry deliberate. Two arguments support it. First, the Fed pause is exactly what breaks if growth slows and cuts resume, at which point gold reprices.
Second, the VIX at 15.86, in the 22.5th percentile of the past year, suggests markets are complacent. Loeb is buying insurance while it is cheap. Both readings can be right. They just imply different holding periods.
What a Retirement Investor Should Actually Do
Following either trade blindly misses the point. Einhorn’s trim reflects rebalancing, and he still owns 99,611 shares of GLD, which is not a small residual. Loeb’s initiation reads as a modestly-sized hedge against a Fed forced back into cutting.
For a retirement portfolio already holding gold at a 5% to 10% allocation, the plain read of these two filings is that elite capital thinks gold belongs in the book, at a lower weight than the 2025 rally implied. If you own no gold at all, Loeb’s entry is a nudge, and a small one. If you own too much, Einhorn is showing you how professionals take chips off. Both are disciplined moves. The sizing discipline, rather than the directional call, is what stands out here.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks