Wholesale inflation came in lower than economists expected in July, strengthening the case that disinflation is regaining momentum ahead of the Federal Reserve’s fall meetings.
Reporting from the CME in Chicago, CNBC markets commentator Rick Santelli walked viewers through a Producer Price Index report that came in softer across nearly every major line. Headline PPI was flat month over month versus the 0.2% increase expected, while annual inflation slowed sharply from 5.5% to 4.7%.
July PPI Was “Definitely Better Than Expected”
On the headline reading, Santelli noted: “Headline number, final demand month over month, expected up 2/10, comes in lower, zero.” A flat month-over-month result in final demand PPI, against consensus estimates of a 0.2% increase, is meaningful good news, as inflation has been running hot through the spring.
The year-over-year figure showed even sharper deceleration. “Year-over-year final demand headline 4.7%, 2/10 less than expected. And in the rear-view mirror, 5.5%. So a big sequential drop. 4.7% would be the lowest since it was March when we were 4.3%,” Santelli said.
Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, also came in below expectations. “Strip out food and energy, comes out up 2/10, one tenth lighter than expectations,” Santelli reported. His summary of the report: “These numbers are mostly better than expected sequentially. Definitely better than expected.“
Jobless Claims Remain Healthy as Treasury Yields Hold Steady
The accompanying labor data supported the economic strength narrative. Initial jobless claims came in at 209,000, slightly elevated from prior expectations, while continuing claims came in at 1,777,000, lower than expected. Claims are squarely within what economists consider to be a healthy range.
Santelli flagged that Treasury yields were subdued, with the 10-year at 4.67% and the 30-year at 5.23%. Those levels sit within the tight range seen through early August, with the 10-year moving between 4.63% and 4.72% over the prior two weeks.
The Federal Funds target rate upper bound has been holding at 3.75%, unchanged from a month ago, following a series of cuts through late 2025. That pause has stretched to approximately 8 months, giving policymakers time to assess whether inflation is durably converging back to target.
Lower Inflation Strengthens the Case for Interest Rate Cuts
July inflation numbers were better than expected, strengthening the argument that inflation has peaked and that we could see rate cuts later this year.
Investors should now watch August CPI, the next Core PCE report, and Fed commentary ahead of the September meeting. Another soft inflation print would add significant weight to the disinflationary trend Santelli highlighted from the CME floor.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks