How Low Can XRP Go? We Asked 3 AI Models Where XRP Bottoms

However, XRP is barely holding above a dollar today at $1.01. So we gave ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini the current price and ETF flow data, then asked each one if the $1 support breaks and where XRP stops falling.

Why All Three Models Expect XRP to Break Below $1

ChatGPT and Gemini both put the odds of the XRP price closing a day below $1 before the end of September at 75%, while Claude put it at 65%.

ChatGPT argued that the $1 support is an unusually crowded level, since round numbers are where most traders set their stop-loss orders. All of those orders sell automatically the moment XRP breaks below $1, which drags the price well past the level before buyers step back in. It also pointed to the dip in XRP Ledger activity, where daily active addresses fell 23.2% in the first half of the year, from 19,927 to 15,302, even though total activated accounts passed 8 million.

Meanwhile, Gemini leaned on the XRP chart instead. It highlights that the XRP price is below the 50-day EMA at $1.09, the 100-day at $1.17, and the 200-day at $1.36, so sellers have control on every timeframe. The daily RSI also reads 36, and anything under 30 counts as oversold, which puts XRP close to the point where sellers usually run out.

Lastly, Claude reiterates that the $1 floor had already been pierced intraday on August 11, every trend average points down, and institutional money has effectively stopped coming in. However, it kept its odds of XRP breaking below $1 at 65%, because whales keep buying at exactly that level.

The three AI models all flagged the drop in XRP ETF inflows too. Weekly inflows fell 93% to $1.01 million for the week ending August 8, and net assets dropped to $964 million, against the $666 million those funds gathered in their first month. ETF buying is what absorbs the selling from everyone else, and with that slowing to a trickle, XRP has far less holding it up.

The Models Put XRP’s Bottom Between $0.55 and $0.80

None of the three models expect the XRP price to stop falling anywhere near $1. Their bottom calls range from $0.55 to $0.80, which is a 21% to 46% drop from today’s $1.01.

ChatGPT called $0.78 as the XRP bottom. It expects buyers to start showing up between $0.80 and $0.85, but put its call just below that, since a fall through a round number tends to overshoot before it settles.

Meanwhile, Claude picked $0.80, two cents above ChatGPT. Its reasoning is that XRP has not traded below $1 in 635 days, so there has been very little buying or selling at those prices to act as support on the way down. Claude did name $0.62 as a risk level, but only if the CLARITY Act fails in September and Bitcoin falls at the same time, since whales are still buying and the ETFs still hold roughly $964 million.

Gemini went much lower at $0.55, around 30 cents below the other two. It argues that the XRP price has held a range for months, and losing $1 drops it out of that range entirely, with the next place buyers have historically stepped in being $0.50 to $0.60.

What Happens After XRP Breaks Below $1

The XRP price spent 1,139 days below $1 after dipping below it in February 2018, and another 1,085 days after November 2021, close to three years each time. Both stretches began the same way, with XRP slipping just under a dollar before the fall carried much further.

However, neither of those periods had the institutional buying XRP has today through the ETFs. Those funds hold $933 million in XRP and only sell when investors cash out their shares, which means a falling price does not force them to sell.

That $933 million is 1.5% of XRP’s $63 billion market cap, and XRP trades more than that in a single day. So the funds can cushion a fall, but they cannot stop one.

XRP could spend a few months below $1 if the support breaks, but it would not take years like the previous cycles did. That said, the CLARITY Act still has to clear the Senate in September. If the vote fails, XRP has no scheduled catalyst left in 2026, and another multi-year stretch becomes the likely outcome.

How Low Can XRP Go?

The XRP price could bottom between $0.78 and $0.80 if the $1 support breaks, which is our read on the three AI calls. That range is roughly a 21% fall from $1.01, and it lines up with where XRP traded before the November 2024 rally, so buyers have stepped in at those prices before.

Everything still turns on the CLARITY Act clearing the Senate on September 15. The whole market has been waiting on that vote, and passing it would bring back the institutional money that has stayed out all year.