Berkshire’s Biggest Second-Quarter Move Was This Stock. Should You Buy, Sell or Hold?
Berkshire Hathaway just made Alphabet its largest second-quarter purchase by a wide margin, but the same quarter revealed a cash flow figure that would make most investors pause. Here is what the bulls and the bears are each getting right.
At $343.54, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG | GOOG Price Prediction) looks compelling to some of the market’s most disciplined capital allocators, and Berkshire Hathaway just signaled why. Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) $17 billion add to its Alphabet stake was its biggest second-quarter move, vaulting Google’s parent into Berkshire’s third-largest holding.
Alphabet dominates search, operates YouTube, and owns Google Cloud, one of three global hyperscaler platforms racing to build AI infrastructure. Under CEO Sundar Pichai, it has grown into a $4.20 trillion business while the market debated whether AI will erode Search or supercharge it. The answer looks like the latter.
The stock has run 69.03% over the past year yet trades at a valuation that would embarrass most hyperscaler peers, which is why Buffett’s team stepped in.
Why Buffett’s Team Is Buying Here
Alphabet trades at 17 times trailing earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.964, extraordinary for a business posting 24% revenue growth and 34% operating margins. Q2 2026 revenue hit $119.80 billion, and Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth with operating income more than tripling to $8.8 billion.
Forward catalysts include a $514 billion Cloud backlog, nearly 90% of the Fortune 100 now on Gemini Enterprise, and Search revenue up 17% as AI Overviews scale without cannibalizing monetization. Of 63 covering analysts, 57 rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy.
The Capex Bill Coming Due
The bear case centers on cash flow. Q2 capital expenditures doubled year over year to $44.92 billion, pushing free cash flow to negative $5.86 billion. Long-term debt more than doubled from $46.5 billion to $98.2 billion, and the buyback program was suspended.
2026 capex guidance sits at $175 to $185 billion, and the market has flinched. The stock is down 7.2% over the past month. Add regulatory pressure and competition from OpenAI and Anthropic, and the EPS beat looks less impressive once you strip out $99.03 billion in unrealized equity securities gains.
Why Some Investors Are Waiting
The hold case is straightforward: you can love the business and still want one more quarter. AI capex is running ahead of AI revenue, and TPU system sales won’t meaningfully hit the P&L until 2027. Insider activity has trended toward selling across 190 recent transactions.
Tipping-point questions: does Cloud margin hold as third-party capacity bridges the supply gap, and does Search monetization stay durable as AI Mode crosses 1 billion monthly active users? Q3 earnings will answer both.
What the Numbers Say
Alphabet trades at $343.54 against a consensus analyst target of $421.79, implying roughly 22.8% upside across 63 analysts. The ratings breakdown reads:
- Strong Buy: 13
- Buy: 44
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
Shares are up 9.62% year to date. Since the Q2 filing on July 22, GOOG has slipped 1.3% while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) has risen 5.2%, a gap that explains why deep-pocketed buyers see an entry point. Valuation is anchored by a 17 P/E, a 54.8% profit margin, and 48.7% return on equity.
The Verdict: Why Berkshire Bought Here
At $343.54, Alphabet screens as attractively valued by consensus standards.
The path to appreciation runs through two catalysts over the next two to four quarters: Cloud revenue conversion from the $514 billion backlog and TPU system-sale ramp hitting the income statement.
At 17 times earnings, investors pay a market multiple for a business compounding revenue at 24% with Cloud growing 82%. That is the mispricing Berkshire recognized when it made GOOG its largest Q2 buy.
The thesis breaks if AI capex crosses $200 billion without commensurate Cloud acceleration, or if AI Overviews compress Search take rates. Watch Q3 for Cloud operating margin and Search revenue growth. Neither signals stress yet.
The pullback into a Buffett buy at a hyperscaler-cheap multiple sets up the next twelve months.
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Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
