iQIYI Is Betting Big on AI as Its Core Business Comes Under Pressure

iQIYI has become one of the most polarizing names in Chinese internet stocks. The core streaming business is contracting, losses have returned after two profitable years, and management is betting that AI-driven content production can reset the cost structure.

The 24/7 Wall St. price target for iQIYI (NASDAQ:IQ | IQ Price Prediction) is $1.76, pointing to 42.73% upside from the current price of $1.23. Our recommendation is buy at moderate confidence of 50%, reflecting the gap between AI optionality and cash-flow reality.

A Painful Year, but a Turning Q2

IQ has slumped 47.21% over the past year and 35.94% year to date, with the 52-week range at $0.95 and $2.84.

Q1 2026 revenue fell 13.4% YoY to $913.32 million, and the company posted a net loss of $43.22 million. Q2 2026, reported August 18, showed early stabilization: total revenue of RMB 6.3 billion, non-GAAP operating loss narrowed 80% sequentially to RMB 30.3 million, and operating cash flow rose to RMB 339.6 million.

The headline revenue still fell roughly 5% year over year, which keeps the stock under pressure.

Why Bulls See a Breakout Ahead

The bull case rests on AI economics. CEO Yu Gong stated “IQIYI is the beneficiary of AI.” AIGC production is delivering 70% to 90% cost and timeline reductions, and short-form drama market share doubled from 25% in March to 50% in June, reaching #1 in China for the first time.

Overseas membership revenue grew 40% YoY, with Brazil surging 215%+ and Mexico 150%+. A $100 million buyback and a proposed Hong Kong dual listing add optionality. The bull case scenario points to $2.37, a 92.99% return.

The Risks Worth Watching

The bear case is credible. FY2025 swung from 764 million CNY net income to a 206 million CNY loss, and the balance sheet carries $636.6 million in PAG loan principal plus roughly RMB 8.2 billion in convertible notes. Content Distribution revenue collapsed 43% YoY in Q1.

Bulls note that SG&A was cut 20% and AIGC recouped production costs within a single quarter overseas, suggesting margin pressure is partly investment-driven. A bear scenario lands near $1.49.

How iQIYI Compares to Bilibili and Baidu

Bilibili (NASDAQ:BILI) is the direct China video peer where AI is already translating to profit. Bilibili delivered Q1 2026 EPS of $0.19 on $1.08 billion revenue with advertising up 30% YoY. That contrast (one profitable, one not) is why our target sits below Bilibili’s growth multiple but above IQ’s distressed levels.

Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) is iQIYI’s controlling parent and trades on a P/E near 4. Baidu’s AI Cloud Infra grew 50% YoY last quarter while its legacy business shrank. Both parent and subsidiary are financing painful transitions, and the peer read makes our $1.76 target reasonable rather than aggressive.

Buy the Turn, Watch the Debt

My final call is buy with 50% confidence and a 24/7 Wall St. price target of $1.76. Q2’s sharp narrowing of the operating loss alongside real AIGC traction is the tipping factor.

The setup strengthens if short-form drama share holds above 50% and overseas membership growth stays above 30%. It weakens if PAG debt refinancing terms tighten or content margins slip further.

These projections assume iQIYI executes its AI content roadmap and services debt without dilutive equity raises. Significant upside or downside could come from Hong Kong listing execution or shifts in Chinese streaming regulation.

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