The 2026 winner among Atlassian, HubSpot, and Monday.com is clear by a wide margin, and the more useful finding is that the gap traces back to what happened at the two decliners rather than to the software sector.
Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM | TEAM Price Prediction) stock is up 5% year to date to $170.31, a modest gain that’s still the best result in this group. Meanwhile, HubSpot (NYSE:HUBS) stock is down 40% year to date to $239.38, a drawdown that dwarfs the broader software index. Also, Monday.com (NASDAQ:MNDY) stock is down 38% year to date to $90.91, tracking closely with HubSpot’s slide across the year.
By size, Atlassian carries a market cap of $27.12 billion, larger than HubSpot at $12.23 billion and Monday.com at $3.83 billion combined. That size gap widened this year as the two smaller names de-rated hard.
Why It’s a Two-Stock Story
Notably, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (CBOE:IGV) is down 4% year to date to $102.73, a modest slip well shy of the drawdowns at HubSpot and Monday.com. That fund holds a broad basket of software names, and it had an ordinary year while HubSpot and Monday.com had bad ones.
The gap between the ETF’s 4% decline and the deep declines at HubSpot and Monday.com is the sharpest data point in this comparison. If a broad software sell-off were driving the two names lower, IGV would look far worse than it does. That distinction moves the analysis from “software cracked” to “these two names cracked,” and it’s where readers can focus.
For Atlassian, the sector backdrop is friendly, and TEAM stock has done better than the IGV ETF on the year. The relative story here is the collapse in HubSpot and Monday.com, and the sector data offers no cover for those declines.
What Each Company Actually Sells
Atlassian sells team collaboration and service management software, including Jira and Confluence. The company serves over 350,000 customers, including more than 85% of the Fortune 500, and is transitioning users from its Data Center product, scheduled for end of life in March 2029, to its cloud platform.
HubSpot sells a customer platform combining AI engagement tools and a CRM, serving over 306,000 customers. Separately, Monday.com offers a work management platform spanning work management, CRM, service management and software development, serving roughly 250,000 customers, with over 2,000 customers generating more than $100,000 in annual recurring revenue.
All three compete in overlapping corners of collaboration, CRM, and service management, so a sector-wide problem would have hit them together. Instead, HubSpot and Monday.com moved sharply apart from Atlassian and from IGV, and that fact can shape how investors read the year-to-date scoreboard for TEAM stock, HUBS stock, and MNDY stock.
How Atlassian Wins by Default
The company’s 5% year-to-date gain is modest in absolute terms for Atlassian, and readers deciding where to put money deserve that stated plainly. TEAM stock wins this group by default, on the strength of the other two collapsing.
That lead comes with real risk for Atlassian shareholders. Data Center revenue is set to roll off through March 2029, and the transition to cloud carries execution risk that TEAM stock could absorb quarter by quarter.
Even so, Atlassian is the only name here that outperformed IGV on the year, and by a wider margin than 5% suggests once the HubSpot and Monday.com declines set the reference. Winning a three-way this decisively, even from a modest starting move, is worth noting.
Before Calling Either Decline an Opportunity
A 40% decline in HubSpot stock could reflect a broken story, a cheap story, or something in between. The same holds for Monday.com stock down 38%, and reading the difference takes evidence beyond price for either name.
Investors can watch for signs that revenue growth stabilizes at HubSpot and Monday.com, together with margin trajectory and net dollar retention. Traders may want to keep an eye on whether the IGV ETF continues to hold up, since a broader software sell-off would change the calculus for TEAM stock, HUBS stock, and MNDY stock alike.
Position Sizing and the 2026 Takeaway
Position sizing matters more than usual here. Atlassian stock is the clear winner of this three-way, and a 5% year offers thin cover for aggressive positioning, particularly with execution risk on the Data Center transition through March 2029. A moderate weighting fits this setup better than a full bet on any single name.
For HubSpot and Monday.com, the takeaway is that a 40% or 38% drawdown can hide a broken story just as easily as a cheap one, and evidence of stabilization in growth and retention should come before either counts as an opportunity. The 2026 lesson from these three names is simple: software was a stock-picking year, and IGV holding at down 4% removes the “everything sold off” excuse from the table.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks