Ontario Premier Doug Ford told the Associated Press on Monday that his province is prepared to choke off electricity flowing south to 1.5 million homes and businesses in Michigan, Minnesota and New York if President Trump does not pull back from his latest tariff escalation. “Everything’s on the table. I’ll do whatever it takes,” Ford said. This is a provincial threat. Electricity exports fall under Ontario’s jurisdiction. Electricity exports are Ontario’s jurisdiction, meaning Ford can move without Prime Minister Mark Carney or Ottawa. The 1.5 million figure is Ontario’s own estimate from the March 2025 surcharge episode, recycled.
What Triggered This
Carney walked away from trade talks late Friday, Aug. 21, saying Washington’s demands were unacceptable. The sticking point was U.S. language restricting Canada’s ability to negotiate trade agreements with other countries without American approval, which Carney framed as a sovereignty issue. On Saturday, Aug. 22, the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods, including dairy, alcoholic beverages, cement and hockey equipment. On Monday, Trump threatened a further 50% tariff on Canadian automobiles, auto parts and steel starting next year. Carney announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation beginning Sept. 8, 2026, targeting U.S. steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics. Canada’s Finance Department said additional measures would be announced Tuesday, Aug. 25, with details not yet public.
Trump, on social media Monday, accused Canada of “ripping off the United States of America for years” and called the arrangement “Not sustainable, and NOT ANYMORE!” He told Canada’s leaders to “fall in line.”
Surcharge Mechanism in Focus
Ford’s headline word is “cutoff,” but the mechanism he named for power is a price surcharge. Per the BBC, he said an “energy surcharge is on the table.” The outright cutoff language attaches primarily to critical minerals, where Ford said “I’ll cut them off” and “You won’t get a grain of sand out of Ontario,” citing high-grade nickel and Ontario-refined uranium.
Ontario tried the surcharge tool once before. On March 10, 2025, the province slapped a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York, priced at $7 to $10 USD per megawatt-hour and expected to raise $208,000 to $278,000 per day. It lasted about one day. Ontario suspended it March 11, 2025 after Ford spoke with then-Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Energy Minister Stephen Lecce said the charge was set to zero but the mechanism stayed in place.
Can Ontario Actually Pull the Plug
The physical asymmetry favors Ford. Ontario exports roughly 12,000 megawatt-hours to the U.S. against imports of about 374 megawatt-hours. But a genuine halt means cutting generation, not redirecting it, and Ford has acknowledged “if we turn down the nuclear reactor it could take six months,” pushing any real squeeze onto hydro. Energy lawyer Tom Timmins notes Ontario itself imports U.S. power on peak-demand days. Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles has warned a cutoff could push American utilities to permanently diversify away from Canadian electricity.
Energy is not in Canada’s current countermeasures, Ottawa has not ruled it out, and not all provincial premiers are keen to use that leverage. Carney noted Saturday that Canada supplies the vast majority of U.S. natural gas and electricity imports and about 60% of crude oil imports, adding: “I don’t think they want us to stop sending any of that energy.”
What to Watch
The immediate signal is Sept. 8, when Carney’s federal retaliation activates, and whether Ottawa’s Tuesday announcement includes energy language. Then watch Ford: he lifted his last surcharge inside 24 hours. Household costs are already tightening. Gasoline averages $4.05 per gallon, up $0.19 from a month ago, and the Yale Budget Lab pegs the household cost of Trump’s global tariffs at about $1,100 annually. Ford also flagged the midterms, noting two of the biggest Senate races sit in Michigan and Maine and adding: “If I were allowed to, I’d be down there door-knocking.”
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