Reddit Rallies 7% as Baird Says Renewal Risk Is Already Priced In, Pinterest Holds Flat

Reddit (NYSE:RDDT | RDDT Price Prediction) stock is rallying Wednesday morning after a research note from Baird argued the market has already discounted the worst outcome for the company’s two AI data licensing agreements, both of which expire next year. That reframing lands on a name whose year has been defined by exactly this question.

Reddit shares are up 7% to $155.07. Meanwhile, Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) stock is essentially unmoved at $21.26, with no matching catalyst hitting the social peer today. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.5% to $765.19, showing today’s move in Reddit stock is a single-name repricing.

Reddit stock was down 37% year to date through Tuesday’s close. Today’s rally is a bounce in a name that has already been repriced hard heading into the session.

Baird Reframes the Renewal Overhang

Baird analyst Colin Sebastian reiterated a Neutral rating and a $185 price target on Reddit stock. Sebastian wrote that the current share price reflects an outcome near the firm’s low-end scenario for the licensing renewals, with base and bull cases implying $10 and $20 per share of upside respectively. The framing shifts the debate from renewal downside to renewal asymmetry, since the downside case is already reflected in the share price.

The renewal question has been the overhang on Reddit stock all year. Reddit’s licensing agreements with two large AI partners both expire next year, and the company has said substantially all of its licensing revenue comes from those two agreements. That concentration sits at the center of the debate.

What Actually Gets Renegotiated

The first agreement, with Alphabet‘s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google, dates to a February 2024 expansion giving Google access to Reddit’s Data API and is reported at $60 million a year. The OpenAI agreement followed in May 2024 and is reported at $70 million. OpenAI is privately held.

CEO Steve Huffman has indicated Reddit may seek higher fees on the renewals and shift from flat pricing to usage-based pricing. As of June the platform had 130 million daily active uniques and more than 26 billion posts and comments, and that archive grows every day. Huffman’s argument is that Reddit’s data keeps its value even after years of access, which supports the case for repricing higher on any renewal.

The bear case is straightforward. Agreements could renew at lower prices, cover fewer services, or fail to renew at all. Reddit’s most recent earnings call also flagged choppy search referral traffic and low visibility around AI overviews, both of which touch the same Google relationship that anchors licensing.

What to Watch Next

Investors can watch for signs that management confirms renewal terms or timing on upcoming earnings updates. Even a partial renewal at usage-based pricing would recalibrate the debate quickly for Reddit stock.

Traders may want to check for follow-through above prior resistance before treating today’s move as a durable change in trend. Position sizing matters, since the licensing renewals are effectively binary events for a slice of Reddit’s revenue and non-advertising income remains concentrated in two customers. Investors should size their exposure for a range of possible renewal outcomes.

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