Grounded and Falling: Why One Wall Street Pro Says Rocket Lab Will More Than Double Soon

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) currently trades at $64.26, well below the Wall Street average price target of $111, an implied upside of roughly 72.7%.

Rocket Lab is a vertically integrated space company running the small-lift Electron rocket, the HASTE hypersonic testbed, an in-development medium-lift Neutron rocket, and a fast-growing space systems arm that builds satellites, components, and propulsion. Management has also announced a deal to acquire Iridium Communications to become a self-launching, integrated space and communications player.

Wall Street pays attention because Rocket Lab is one of the few pure-play alternatives to SpaceX with real government backlog. The gap between the stock and the average target has widened just as the company closes a landmark acquisition and pushes its biggest rocket toward the pad.

Neutron Slip and Dilution Deflated the Rally

The primary catalyst was a Stage 1 tank test failure that pushed Neutron’s debut to Q4 2026, with management now saying the year-end launch window is narrowing. That single delay reset the timeline investors had been paying a premium for.

Shares are down 14.11% over the past month and sit roughly 57% below the 52-week high of $151. The S&P 500 was essentially flat over the same month at 0.05%, pointing to company-specific weakness.

Q2 revenue of $234.07 million grew 62% year over year and beat consensus, but GAAP EPS of -0.08 missed expectations after $8.58 million in acquisition-related costs. Add in $1.53 billion raised through an at-the-market equity program in the first half and dilution concerns intensified.

Why Stifel Still Sees a Double

Analysts are staying with the story because the backlog drives the thesis. Rocket Lab ended Q2 with a record $2.36 billion backlog, up 137% year over year, and management flagged more than $1 billion in new contracts signed already in Q3.

Stifel’s Erik Rasmussen carries the Street-high target of $150, which implies the stock more than doubles. His bull thesis rests on three pillars: Neutron commercialization expanding Rocket Lab into mega-constellation and defense payloads, an explosion in higher-margin Space Systems revenue, and continued Space Force and SDA wins as a reliable non-SpaceX prime. Treat these targets as one data point among many.

The defense pipeline backs him up. Rocket Lab has already booked the $397 million Flatellite contract for the Space Force SB-AMTI program, the $816 million SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 award, and work on the Golden Dome Space Based Interceptor program with Raytheon. The FY2027 Department of War request allocates $71.2 billion to the U.S. Space Force, a growth vector for space primes.

Coverage is heavily positive. Of 18 analysts, 3 rate the stock Strong Buy, 11 Buy, and 4 Hold, with none at Sell. The event everyone is watching is Neutron’s first flight, which management said would flip standalone free cash flow positive within a subsequent 18 to 24 month window.

Space Peers Sold Off in Unison

Every peer here is trading well below its consensus target, putting RKLB in line with the group.

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) trades near $62.31 against a $79.61 average target, roughly 28% upside. Shares are down 13.39% over the past month after a rough Q2 miss. Coverage skews cautious with 4 Buys, 7 Holds, and 2 Sells, the tamest posture in this group.

Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) sits at $14.81 versus a $29.50 target, roughly 99% implied upside. Seven of nine analysts rate it Buy after the Lanteris acquisition transformed it into a scaled space prime.

Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) trades at $18.12 against a $35.36 target, about 95% upside, and is down 24.28% in the past month despite a Q2 beat. Coverage skews Buy at 7, with 3 Hold and 1 Sell.

BlackSky Technology (NYSE:BKSY) is the group’s worst monthly performer at -29.7%, trading at $20.50 versus a $38.42 target, about 87% upside. All six covering analysts rate it Buy or Hold.

The largest analyst-implied upside sits with LUNR near 99%. Rocket Lab’s roughly 73% to consensus (and 133% to Stifel’s Street-high) puts it mid-pack, but with by far the largest market cap, deepest backlog, and lowest execution binary of the group.

Backlog Doing the Heavy Lifting

Rocket Lab currently trades at $64.26 against an average target of $111 from 18 analysts, an implied upside of roughly 72.7%. Stifel’s Street-high of $150 implies the stock more than doubles.

Over the last month RKLB is down 14.11% while the S&P 500 was flat at 0.05%. Year to date, RKLB is off 7.88% versus the S&P 500’s 12.94% gain. On a one-year view the stock is still up 49.48%.

Forward estimates support the trajectory: revenue of $958 million for FY2026 rising to $1.36 billion for FY2027, though both years carry negative average EPS estimates.

Neutron Execution Is the Real Catalyst

The bull case tightens if Neutron reaches the pad in Q4 2026 and the first flight succeeds cleanly. That single event unlocks the Iridium acquisition rationale, converts the $2.36 billion backlog faster, and gives the Stifel bull case runway. Add Golden Dome flow and additional SDA tranches, and the path to $111 (let alone $150) becomes credible.

The thesis breaks if the Neutron slip becomes a slip-and-slip. Another tank failure, an integration stumble on Iridium, or continued ATM dilution would break the thesis fast. The stock still trades at more than 50x sales, so patience is not free (riding a story stock at that multiple is workable if you plan the exit, which is the whole point of our free bubble survivor’s handbook).

The setup skews cautiously constructive. The backlog, defense wins, and analyst posture all point up, but Neutron on the pad is the milestone worth waiting for before conviction builds.

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