Anthropic Will Have IPO Before OpenAI Kalshi Says
Prediction markets now give Anthropic a massive lead over OpenAI in the race to go public, but a closer look at each company's financials tells a far more complicated story about which one is actually ready.
Anthropic will go public before OpenAI, according to betting platform Kalshi—ninety-three percent of those making predictions say so. Because the figure doesn’t have to add to 100, 11% predict OpenAI will go first. In February and June, the figures were tied.
How much value does the prediction platform have when compared to reality?
First, Anthropic is profitable and will be for the second quarter in a row, according to the FT. This almost certainly means it is burning less cash than OpenAI. In June, the press reported that Anthropic lost $20.5 billion in 2025, up 138% from the year before.
There is the factor of revenue. As of the last report, OpenAI had a $40 billion revenue run rate for 2026. Anthropic’s is supposed to be $65 billion by the same measure, up from $9 billion last year.
What can people take away from these P&Ls? Maybe that OpenAI is losing more money because th buildout of AI data centers. It may not work exactly that way. Much of the spending comes from partners. In June, TWN reported, after reviewing OpenAI’s first quarter financials, that “OpenAI carries no debt and reported just $46mn of capital spending last quarter. For a company this hungry for computing power, that lightness is exactly what should make IPO investors look harder.”
At one point, the consensus was that Anthropic had more business customers. That period may be ending. Ramp announced that OpenAI was gaining in the business sector. It is widely believed that each makes more money from business, enterprise, and government revenue than from individual use.
Are Kalshi “predictors” right? People use the prediction horse race. It’s just gamblers without any real knowledge.
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