A $15 Billion Iowa Steel Mill Is Coming. What It Means for Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs
A $15 billion foreign-owned steel mill is rising in Iowa, and the moment its first steel ships in 2030, it will reshape the competitive landscape for two of America's biggest steelmakers in very different ways.
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On Monday, September 28, 2026, The White House announced that Mesabi Metallics will build a $15 billion steel mill in Iowa, starting at 7.5 million tons a year and rising to about 10 million tons. Mesabi is privately held and foreign-owned, so you cannot buy shares in it.
For Nucor (NYSE:NUE | NUE Price Prediction) and Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF), the plant pressures price. First steel is expected in 2030, making this a valuation question today and an earnings question later, according to Mining.com.
Iowa Will Use the Electric Furnace Route Nucor Already Runs
The mill will convert iron ore into direct reduced iron and melt it in electric arc furnaces. Nucor already runs electric arc furnaces, while Cleveland-Cliffs operates traditional integrated operations that management describes as “miners, pellet producers, iron makers, steel makers, and downstream manufacturers.”
The planned output is at about one-tenth of last year’s U.S. steel production. The Export-Import Bank of the United States announced a $770 million direct loan for the associated Minnesota iron ore mine, and administration officials tied the project to steel tariffs.
Cleveland-Cliffs already dropped 7.84% on September 28 after its Canadian unit, Stelco, reported plans to indefinitely idle cold-rolled and coated operations at Hamilton Works, affecting about 350 jobs. Stelco blamed the 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian steel.
Tariffs cut both ways. The regime propping up U.S. prices shrank Cliffs in Canada. Nucor fell 1.1% that day, a decline likely tied to the Iowa project.
Nucor Stays Profitable While Cliffs Is Still Rebuilding
Nucor reported second-quarter adjusted EPS of $4.84 on $10.4 billion in sales. Its weak spot is expectations: on September 17, Nucor guided third-quarter EPS to $5.55 to $5.65, missing the $6.20 consensus, and shares fell about 5.8% the next day.
Cleveland-Cliffs lost $0.25 a share in the second quarter after a full-year 2025 loss of $1.4 billion. Cleveland-Cliffs guided third-quarter adjusted EBITDA to about $575 million from $286 million, suggesting a floor is forming, although $7.7 billion of long-term debt leaves little room for a price war when the first-steel date arrives around 2030.
| Lens | Nucor | Cleveland-Cliffs |
|---|---|---|
| Steelmaking process | Electric arc furnaces | Integrated blast furnaces |
| Q2 per-share result | $4.84 adjusted EPS, according to Nucor | $0.25 loss |
| Year-to-date stock move | 50.77% | -15.51% |
Should You Buy or Sell NUE Stock
Nucor screens better than Cleveland-Cliffs on this setup: Iowa mirrors Nucor’s electric-furnace model, while integrated producers carry higher fixed costs. Nucor has gained 50.77% this year yet trades near 11 times forward earnings, with $244.52 under the average analyst target of $283.63.
Cliffs, at $11.23 and down 43.67% over five years, needs contract resets and debt paydown before Iowa’s output arrives. If management hits its leverage target of under 2.5x debt to EBITDA by mid-2027, or Nucor misses guidance, reconsider the ranking. I’d tag NUE stock a buy, and I’d avoid CLF stock for now.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
