Cleveland-Cliffs Jumps 10% as Stelco Fallout Fades Before October 19 Earnings; Nucor and Steel Dynamics Rise 5%
Cleveland-Cliffs is clawing back losses from its Stelco shutdown while Nucor and Steel Dynamics ride domestic trade protection, but the October 19 earnings report will decide whether this steel rally has legs or just a head start.
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U.S. steel stocks are rallying, led by Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF | CLF Price Prediction), which is recovering ground lost after its Stelco announcement in late September. Cleveland-Cliffs stock is up 10% to $12.44 in afternoon trading ahead of its third-quarter 2026 report on October 19.
Meanwhile, Nucor (NYSE:NUE) stock is up 5% to $252.47, and Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD) shares are rising 5% to $244.04. Worthington Steel (NYSE:WS), a steel processor, rounds out the U.S. group.
The VanEck Steel ETF (NYSEARCA:SLX), which holds a broad international mix of steel and mining stocks, is rising 2%, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.6%.
Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Retraces Its Stelco Slide
In late September, Cleveland-Cliffs announced the indefinite shutdown of cold-rolled and coated operations at its Stelco subsidiary in Hamilton, Ontario, citing U.S. trade conditions. Shares sold off, and the current advance reverses that decline.
Operating numbers are also improving. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) at Cleveland-Cliffs tripled sequentially to $286 million in Q2 2026, and the company guided its Q3 2026 figure to approximately $575 million, with Q4 2026 expected to exceed that level. Chief executive Lourenco Goncalves stated in July that Cleveland-Cliffs was “beginning to see meaningful improvement in the Canadian market, positioning Stelco to return to generating significant earnings.”
Stelco Sets Cleveland-Cliffs Apart From Nucor and Steel Dynamics
Stelco gives Cleveland-Cliffs two-sided exposure to U.S. duties on Canadian steel: tariffs that shield its U.S. mills also raise the cost of moving Stelco output across the border. Nucor and Steel Dynamics, as domestic producers, face trade protection that works in one direction.
A 10% rebound in Cleveland-Cliffs stock against 5% gains in Nucor and Steel Dynamics fits a recovery led by the most beaten-down name. Even after the bounce, Cleveland-Cliffs stock is down 7% year to date (YTD), while the VanEck Steel ETF is up 24% YTD.
Weightings explain the fund’s smaller move: Nucor made up 6.1% of net assets and Steel Dynamics 5.5% as of June 30, against 1.7% for Cleveland-Cliffs, with the rest leaning on global miners and overseas steelmakers.
October 19 Report Tests the Cleveland-Cliffs Rebound
Cleveland-Cliffs reports its third-quarter results before the market opens on October 19. The report will show whether EBITDA reached the guided $575 million, how the Hamilton shutdown affected Stelco, and progress toward its leverage target of under 2.5x debt to EBITDA by mid-2027.
Steel pricing offers another benchmark: the average selling price rose to $1,124 per net ton in Q2 from $1,048 in Q1 2026, and operating cash flow turned positive at $230 million.
Cleveland-Cliffs stock carries a beta of 2.11 (a gauge of how sharply a stock moves relative to the market) and long-term debt of $7.7 billion. Nucor and Steel Dynamics offer the same domestic pricing cycle with a simpler, one-way trade profile, while the Cleveland-Cliffs rebound still needs October 19 results behind it. Stay tuned as fresh updates on any or all three stocks could redirect the trajectory of these mining assets.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
