Robinhood Bought Bitcoin for Its Own Balance Sheet, Then Fell Back Below $100 Billion
Robinhood quietly bought Bitcoin for its own treasury the same morning its stock shed over $2 billion in market value, but the crypto purchase and the selloff tell completely different stories about where this company is actually heading.
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Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD | HOOD Price Prediction) closed at $109.51, while Wall Street’s average price target stands at $133.36, a gap of about 21.8%.
The day’s 2.22% decline left the company worth $98.46 billion. That pushed it back under the $100 billion mark it had held one session earlier at about $100.7 billion.
That same morning, a senior executive disclosed that Robinhood had bought $25 million of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) for its corporate treasury. The two events share a date, and the selloff had other causes.
The stock is down 10.32% over the past month. Even so, Barclays raised its target to $132 from $105, and Bank of America lifted its target to $156 from $140, even as shares slipped.
Prices falling while targets rise suggests one side is misreading the business, and the explanation lies in a revenue mix that depends far less on crypto than headlines suggest, and in a third-quarter report due later this month.
Three Separate Forces Pulled Robinhood Lower
Bitcoin fell about 3% and traded around $83,700 that morning. That directly pressures the crypto-linked part of Robinhood’s business.
The wider hit came from a rival. A congressional select committee report called a competing broker’s China ties a national-security risk, and Webull (NASDAQ:BULL) fell 19.09% to $5.89 while Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKR) dropped 3.14%.
ARK also disclosed selling 151,903 Robinhood shares worth about $17.0 million. That added supply into a weak session.
The chief executive sold 375,000 shares earlier in the week at about $113 to $115 under a pre-scheduled selling plan adopted in September 2025. Because the timing was fixed more than a year ago, the sale provides no information about management’s outlook.
A $25 Million Treasury Buy Management Calls Small
The purchase surfaced in an interview with no filing or press release. The company has disclosed neither the purchase date nor the amount of bitcoin acquired.
Johann Kerbrat, Robinhood’s senior vice president and general manager of crypto and international, played down the size himself: “Robinhood is a massive company at this point, with a market cap in the $100 billion range.
So the $25 million worth of bitcoin is not going to change a lot of the current trajectory of the company.” The position works as a gesture toward Robinhood’s crypto-native customers and is far too small for bitcoin’s price to move the company’s earnings.
Prediction Markets Now Outearn Crypto at Robinhood
Second-quarter crypto revenue was $100 million, down 38%, out of $1.31 billion in total revenue. Prediction-market revenue reached $156 million in the same quarter.
This explains why analysts can raise targets while the stock falls. A bitcoin decline hurts one line while the other businesses now set the earnings path.
Equities revenue rose 95%, options revenue rose 29%, and Gold subscribers climbed to 4.8 million. Management said 13 businesses reached $100 million in annual recurring revenue.
Of 29 analysts covering the stock, six rate it Strong Buy, 18 Buy, three Hold, and one each Sell and Strong Sell.
Perpetual futures were announced at the Sept. 29, 2026 summit. They haven’t launched, so no target should rely on that product.
Robinhood first closed above a $100 billion market value in August 2025. Swings around that level are routine for a stock with a beta of 2.354.
At about 45 times forward earnings, the stock prices in strong growth and leaves little room for a weak quarter.
What Robinhood Investors Need to See Next
Robinhood’s underlying business looks solid. The day’s decline came from bitcoin’s move, a sector scare linked to a rival, and a fund’s disclosed sale. The revenue mix supporting the targets remains solid.
The bull case depends on diversification holding. If prediction markets keep growing while equities and options provide transaction revenue, a weak crypto market becomes a minor drag.
The outlook would weaken if crypto revenue keeps shrinking while prediction-market volume stalls, because the multiple would have no new growth to justify it. Regulatory pressure on event contracts is the specific risk.
Interactive Brokers has less crypto sensitivity in its business, although it fell in the same selloff.
The test arrives with third-quarter results on Oct 27, 2026. If prediction-market revenue again tops crypto revenue, the targets look better supported, and if both lines weaken, expect the targets to start coming down.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
