Live: Will Robinhood Rebound After Announcing Q4 Earnings Tonight?

Robinhood’s Q&A starts in 10 minutes. You can see the top questions investors are asking here.

Robinhood provides financial outlook a little differently than most companies. Here’s what they had to say about their outlook for 2026, which focuses on expenses.

“Our 2026 expense plan is designed to accelerate product velocity, drive Net Deposit growth, and grow revenues. This expense outlook includes growth investments in new or recently launched products and features, marketing, international expansion, full year costs related to the 2025 acquisitions of TradePMR and Bitstamp, and rapid growth in existing core products; while also driving rapid growth in existing core products and productivity and efficiency gains in our existing businesses. Our outlook for 2026 Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC is $2.6 billion to $2.725 billion, which represents 18% year-over-year growth at the midpoint relative to 2025 Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC.

This expense outlook does not include provision for credit losses, costs related to our pending acquisitions, costs related to the Rothera joint venture, costs from modifications of executive awards in connection with our CFO transition, potential significant regulatory matters, or other significant expenses (such as impairments, restructuring charges, and other business acquisition- or disposition-related expenses) that may arise or accruals we may determine in the future are required, as we are unable to accurately predict the size or timing of such matters, expenses or accruals at this time.”

Robinhood’s Q4 results reveal several unexpected elements that may explain the market’s negative reaction despite the EPS beat of $0.66 versus $0.63 estimates.

Crypto Revenue Likely Disappointed

While Q3 saw crypto revenue surge 300% YoY to $268M, January data shows Robinhood App crypto volumes down 57% year-over-year. This sharp reversal suggests Q4 crypto revenue likely peaked early in the quarter before Bitcoin’s late-year correction, creating a sequential decline investors hadn’t anticipated.

Revenue Miss Breaks Streak

The $1.283B revenue figure missing estimates ends a three-quarter streak of beats. Q3 delivered a 4.1% revenue beat, making this reversal more jarring for momentum investors.

Margin Book Growth Slowing

January’s margin book grew at just 17% annualized versus Q3’s 29% annualized net deposit growth rate, signaling potential deceleration in a key revenue driver.

Robinhood provides initial quarterly data in its releases, here’s what the company had to say about January:

Select Preliminary January 2026 Operating Data

• Net Deposits were $4.5 billion, an annualized growth rate of 17% relative to Total Platform Assets at the end of December 2025.

• Margin Book increased 121% year-over-year to a record $18.4 billion.

•Equity Notional Trading Volumes increased 57% year-over-year to $227 billion.

• Options Contracts Traded increased 20% year-over-year to 200 million.

• Crypto Notional Trading Volumes were $22.9 billion, including Robinhood App Notional Volumes which decreased 57% year-over-year to $8.7 billion and Bitstamp Notional Volumes which were $14.2 billion.

• Event Contracts Traded were a record 3.4 billion.

Robinhood beat on earnings but missed on revenue. Any misses are being punished this earnings season and it’s no different for HOOD shares, which are now down about 8%.

Revenue is $1.283B (misses expectations).

EPS of $.66 is a slight beat.

Shares are immediately down 5.5%.

Robinhood’s earnings are about 5 minutes away. Once they hit the newswires we’ll begin updating this live blog with news and analysis.

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The price of cryptocurrencies dropped dramatically in the second half of last quarter, but prediction markets are still betting strongly that Robinhood tops earnings estimates today. On Polymarket, there’s currently 80% odds that Robinhood will top GAAP EPS of $.63 in Q4.