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SpaceX Vs. Tesla: Which of Musk’s Babies Grows More By the End of 2027?

Tesla and SpaceX are both spending at historic rates, but they are betting on very different futures, and only one looks built to compound faster through 2027.

By Alex Sirois
Published October 9, 2026, 7:15am ET · 2 min read

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A composite image of Elon Musk looking to the right. On his left, a large silver rocket with orange exhaust plumes is launching into a dark, star-filled sky with Earth's blue atmosphere below. On his right, a multi-lane highway in a futuristic city is populated by numerous Tesla electric cars, including a prominent Cybertruck in the foreground, with red and orange lights illuminating the city buildings. A large silver and red 'X' logo is centered at the top of the image.
Elon Musk is shown against a backdrop symbolizing his two major ventures: a SpaceX rocket launch and a futuristic highway bustling with Tesla vehicles, highlighting his ambitious impact on both space and automotive industries. © 24/7 Wall St.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) and SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) reported second-quarter results this summer, growing at very different rates. Tesla sold more cars and spent heavily on AI. SpaceX posted its first quarter as a public company, with sales driven by Starlink and AI compute. Through 2027, the question is which compounds faster.

Higher Deliveries Pay for Tesla’s AI Build While Starlink Carries SpaceX

Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles, up 25%. Musk said “for a lot of people, they’re actually buying Tesla full self driving with a car attached”, and active FSD subscriptions rose to 1.48 million. Operating margin fell to 1.4% as AI infrastructure spending raised operating expenses 47%. EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.54 estimate.

SpaceX revenue reached $7.81 billion, up 92%. Starlink subscribers doubled to 12.0 million while ARPU fell from $85 to $66. AI revenue jumped 247% on Grok and computing contracts.

Business Driver Tesla SpaceX
Main Growth Engine Vehicles plus FSD software Starlink service
Fastest Riser Services and Other, +50% AI business, +247%
Quarterly Capex $5.79B $18.37B

Tesla Builds Factories While SpaceX Buys Its Way Into New Networks

Tesla’s spending goes into physical products. Capex should top $25 billion this year and keep rising “for the next two or three years.” Musk called Optimus “the hardest product to scale manufacturing that we’ve ever made at Tesla,” which reads to me as a warning that ramps will be slow.

SpaceX is growing through deals: a pending $60 billion Cursor acquisition, more than $6 billion in Starshield contracts, and new airline partners. This week, a SpaceX spectrum deal hammered shares of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile.

Consensus Tesla SpaceX
2026 Revenue $106.47B $44.68B
2027 Revenue $121.09B $113.50B
2027 EPS $2.1630 $1.9352

Analysts expect SpaceX’s 2027 revenue near Tesla’s, with estimates ranging from $59.4 billion to $189.5 billion.

Starship V3 and Robotaxi Scale Will Decide 2027

For SpaceX, watch whether V3 Starlink satellites stop ARPU drops. Starlink is locked out of India. For Tesla, watch Robotaxi mileage, already past 380,000 unsupervised miles, and Cybercab production timing.

Why I Lean Toward SpaceX for Growth Through 2027

SpaceX shows the better growth profile through 2027. Analysts made 3 upward and 0 downward changes to its 2027 EPS in 30 days. Tesla got 19 downward changes. Tesla shares are down 16.61% year to date. Starlink’s subscriber growth is more real than Tesla’s spending on future products.

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Alex Sirois

Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.

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