AST SpaceMobile Sinks 9% as Piper Sandler Cuts to Neutral on SpaceX Direct-to-Cell Threat; Planet Labs Drops 4%, Rocket Lab Slips

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is sinking 9% to $46.58 in morning trading after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Neutral. That decline leaves AST SpaceMobile stock down 36% year to date (YTD) and below its prior 52-week low of $47.57. Behind the call sits SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) and its expanding push into direct-to-cell satellite service.

Two Wall Street firms read the same SpaceX spectrum push and reached opposite conclusions, and that split verdict defines the trade. Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) stock is at $15.27, down 4%, declining alongside AST SpaceMobile stock. Meanwhile, Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) stock is at $64.14, down 2%, a smaller drop than AST SpaceMobile.

Space stocks are absorbing much of the pressure. The Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ:UFO) is down 2%, and AST SpaceMobile held a 4% weight in the fund as of July 31. For comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is down only 0.1%.

Piper Sandler Downgrade Flags Launch and Pricing Risk

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter cut AST SpaceMobile to Neutral from Overweight, citing reduced conviction in the pace of the company’s commercial satellite launches. Potter argued an expanding SpaceX direct-to-cell push could restrict launch availability for carrier-aligned providers and press pricing. Yet, the firm kept a constructive longer-term view, arguing that a more aggressive SpaceX raises the urgency for global carriers to partner with an independent operator.

Deutsche Bank moved the opposite way in the prior session, raising AST SpaceMobile to Buy from Hold and arguing the selloff exceeded the value of its spectrum position. SpaceX’s wireless holdings loom over both calls. After the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) approved a transfer giving it 65 MHz of U.S. spectrum plus global Mobile Satellite Service licenses.

Split Verdict Hinges on Launch Access and Carriers

The bearish read: AST SpaceMobile needs launch access and carrier commitments it doesn’t control, and SpaceX influences both. Scale adds to that pressure, as SpaceX’s Starlink-anchored connectivity business doubled its subscribers to 12 million.

The bullish view is that a carrier-threatening SpaceX could make an independent partner more valuable to wireless operators. That partner model rests on a growing AST SpaceMobile fleet, with 13 BlueBird satellites in orbit and a target of 45 by early 2027. Fresh hardware is moving too, as the next BlueBird satellites arrived at Cape Canaveral in the prior session ahead of launch.

Support for the bullish argument comes from AST SpaceMobile’s balance sheet, with its contracted backlog of $1.3 billion and pro forma liquidity above $3.7 billion. Retail investors are split as well, with a popular r/stocks thread asking, “Can ASTS actually compete with SpaceX long term?” Options positioning favors toward calls, as the full-chain put/call ratio stands at 0.59.

Rocket Lab is a launch provider and spacecraft manufacturer. Planet Labs sells Earth-imaging data by subscription, placing both further from carrier direct-to-cell economics than AST SpaceMobile. Planet Labs stock sits 23% lower YTD, while Rocket Lab stock is down 8% on the same basis. Over that period, AST SpaceMobile stock has fallen further than either.

What to Watch Next

Whether AST SpaceMobile converts its carrier agreements into commercial service before the competitive window closes remains the unresolved question. The company plans beta service with select mobile network operator partners this year, putting the coming BlueBird launch at the center of that timeline.

Investors can watch for whether the BlueBird satellites at Cape Canaveral reach orbit on schedule, which speaks directly to Piper Sandler’s deployment-pace concern, and shareholders could look for signs that carrier partners lock in firmer commercial service dates. With AST SpaceMobile stock carrying a beta of 2.7 and a split analyst verdict, investors should size their positions so one rating change doesn’t dictate their overall risk.

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