Intel Cratered Over The Last 90 Days: This Prominent Analyst Says It’s Going to Double
Intel just lost a third of its value while rivals AMD and NVIDIA kept climbing, yet one prominent analyst sees a path that leaves the consensus in the dust. The bull case rests on a single unproven bet.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) currently trades at $95.37. The average analyst price target is $118.05, meaning about 23.8% upside.
Intel designs x86 processors for PCs and servers. It also runs a foundry business that makes chips for outside customers. Wall Street has been tracking a turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan. Second-quarter revenue reached $16.13 billion, up 25.4% year over year, which Tan called “our strongest revenue growth in more than fifteen years.”
One analyst projects much more than the consensus does. Ben Reitzes of Melius Research has laid out a path to $200 within a two-year horizon. That is about 109.7% above today’s price, so the stock would have to double.
A Blowout Quarter, a $20 Billion Share Sale and a 33% Slide
Intel shares sit 33% below their 52-week high of $142.35, and a decline that size counts as a violent selloff. The first leg came right after the second-quarter report. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.42 against a $0.2175 consensus, yet the stock fell as much as 22.35% in the days that followed as investors took profits after a huge run.
The second leg was specific to Intel. The company announced a $15 billion common stock offering and later upsized it to $20 billion to pay for factory buildouts. Shares have since slid below the $95 offering price. Then a broad chip selloff hit. Intel lost 10.94% over the past week, while the S&P 500 slid just 0.28%.
Analysts Keep Raising Estimates While Holding Their Ratings
Most analysts are remaining conservative. Of 49 analysts, 15 rate Intel a Buy or Strong Buy, 32 say Hold and two say Sell. Recent moves have mostly been reiterations. Mizuho raised its target to $114 and kept a Neutral rating, and TD Cowen kept its Hold rating and $115 target. Estimates are still climbing. The fiscal 2027 EPS consensus has risen to $2.0827 from $1.5384 90 days ago.
Reitzes goes much further. Melius has a 12-month target of $165, which meaning about 73% upside. The $200 case depends on foundry customers using the 14A process and advanced packaging, CHIPS Act support covering capital spending, and margins rising as fabs fill up. There is evidence behind it. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has signed on as a 14A customer. Intel 18A output ran about 25% above target, and 14A is set for high-volume production in 2028.
The gap is still wide. External foundry revenue was only $293 million, and Intel Foundry lost $2.1 billion in the quarter.
Intel Fell While Its Biggest Rivals Kept Climbing
Intel’s slide stands out. Its closest rivals are up over the same 90 days.
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) gained 6.25%, even after a 22.23% decline similar to Intel’s. At $562.23 against a $636.21 target, AMD has about 13.2% upside, which is smaller than Intel’s. Of its 55 analysts, 44 rate it a Buy or Strong Buy, 11 say Hold and none say Sell.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) rose 2.34%. At $217.23 against a $328.72 target, it has about 51.3% upside. Of its 62 analysts, 59 rate it a Buy or Strong Buy. NVIDIA is also an Intel shareholder after a $5.0B equity investment.
On consensus targets, NVIDIA has the most upside of the three. Only the Melius call puts Intel on top.
Up 158% This Year but Down 7.4% Over 90 Days
At $95.37, Intel is about 23.8% below its $118.05 consensus target. The ratings break down this way:
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 14
- Hold: 32
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
Over the past 90 days, Intel lost 7.4% while the S&P 500 gained 2.5%. Year to date, Intel is still up 158.46%, compared with 13.18% for the S&P 500. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 63. For the third quarter, management guided to non-GAAP EPS of $0.38. Price targets are only one data point, and none of them is guaranteed.
Intel’s Path to $200 Runs Through Its Foundry Customer List
The case for Intel at this price holds if 14A wins major customers beyond Tesla, gross margins remaining near the 42.0% guided for the third quarter, and server demand keeps exceeding supply. Management has said server growth should be “well north of a double digit CAGR”.
It becomes a value trap if foundry losses keep piling up while capital spending tops $20 billion this year and rises significantly next year. CFO David Zinsner has already said Intel “may need to tap the capital markets” again, which would mean more dilution.
I lean cautiously positive. The 23.8% consensus upside looks reachable as earnings estimates rise. A double depends on external foundry wins that Intel has not yet shown.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
