China’s Answer to Micron Just Made Nearly $20 Billion
China's state-backed memory giant just flipped from billions in losses to a profit haul big enough to fund the factories that could end the AI chip boom Micron is banking on.
China’s largest memory chipmaker, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), told the Shanghai Stock Exchange on October 16, 2026, that it earned between $19.6 billion and $19.8 billion in net profit from January through September 2026. That works out to 131 billion to 132.5 billion yuan. The figures are preliminary and unaudited, so they are the company’s estimates until audited results confirm them.
In the same period of 2025, CXMT lost 5.3 billion yuan. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU | MU Price Prediction) fell 5.63% to $878.84 that day. The whole chip sector sold off, so CXMT’s filing cannot be blamed for the drop on its own.
This creates a problem for Micron holders. CXMT’s profit shows the shortage is lifting every memory maker, but it also gives a state-backed rival the cash to build the new supply that usually ends memory booms.
What CXMT Put in Writing
Revenue came in between 265 billion and 270 billion yuan, compared with 32.1 billion yuan a year earlier. That is more than an eightfold increase. CXMT gave three reasons: AI demand has squeezed the DRAM market (the main working memory in computers and servers) since the second half of 2025, the company added capacity, and it got more chips out of each silicon wafer.
Chairman Zhu Yiming proposed a buyback of 1 billion to 2 billion yuan over 12 months. So far, that is only a proposal, and no shares have been bought under it.
CXMT listed in Shanghai in July and jumped 466% on its first day. On October 16, shares rose 3.28% to 45.02 yuan, valuing the company at about 3.06 trillion yuan. You cannot buy CXMT on a US exchange, which makes Micron the US-listed stock most tied to this story.
How CXMT Measures Up Against Micron
Micron earned $37.701 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter alone. That single quarter is more than CXMT’s nine-month total, and it came on full-year revenue of $133.19 billion.
US export controls limit China’s access to the most advanced chipmaking tools. Those tools matter most for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the stacked chips used in AI servers. Micron says it has completed deals for the “vast majority” of its calendar 2027 HBM supply. Its September 30, 2026 earnings call included no specific comment on Chinese competitors.
Signals That the Memory Cycle Is Turning
Memory booms tend to follow the same path. Shortages push prices up, the profits pay for new factories, and the new supply eventually pulls prices back down. CXMT now has the cash for that second step.
Micron’s management argues the turn is still a long way off: “We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance.” Keep in mind that a seller has every reason to say supply is tight. Still, Micron backs the claim with more than 75% of its 2027 output already committed.
| Micron Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| October 16 close | $878.84 |
| Past week | -14.58% |
| Year to date | 208.16% |
| Past year | 334.44% |
| 52-week high | $1,255.00 |
Peers fell more than Micron on October 16. SK Hynix dropped 6.58%, and SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) lost 6.85%. The selloff left Micron’s market value at $994.34 billion, just under $1 trillion.
What Could Drive MU Stock From Here
Micron’s share price has pulled back from its peak. The stock sits about 30% below its high, while the company guided fiscal first-quarter revenue to $61.5 billion ± $1.5 billion.
Micron’s long-term supply contracts with customers also set minimum prices for its chips. Its finance chief said, “Even at floor prices, we expect margins meaningfully above any prior cycle peak margins.”
Since CXMT trades only in Shanghai, Micron is still the US-listed company most exposed to this theme. SanDisk is more exposed to NAND storage, and it fell harder that day.
Two developments would weaken this outlook. The first is Micron’s next earnings report coming in below the bottom of that guidance range. The second is CXMT announcing a large capacity expansion alongside its audited full-year results.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
