Tesla Rises 4% Ahead of Q3 Report as Musk Backs SpaceX Merger Idea; Rivian and Lucid Inch Higher

A merger premium is lifting shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) away from the rest of the electric vehicle group after Tesla CEO Elon Musk said a combination with his rocket company would be a good idea. Tesla stock is up 4% to $387.47 in afternoon trading. The gain puts a merger story front and center before the company’s upcoming third-quarter 2026 report, while Musk coupled his support with warnings that leave the next step to independent directors at both firms.

The other party to the proposed combination is SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), which Musk addressed on the rocket company’s earnings call after the prior session’s close. Large-cap tech is offering a supportive background, with the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) up 1.3% to $727.03. Electric vehicle funds are heading the other way, as the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (NASDAQ:DRIV) is slipping 0.2% to $30.69.

Meanwhile, Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) shares are up 1% to $12.59, a smaller gain that leaves Tesla stock leading the group. Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) stock is up 1% to $3.32, landing alongside Rivian shares and well behind Tesla stock. That split, with Tesla stock climbing while the electric vehicle fund dips, points to a move rooted in Tesla’s own merger and earnings story.

Musk Calls a SpaceX Tie-Up a Good Idea

During the SpaceX call, Musk stated, “I think both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss this idea,” referring to a combination of the two companies. He said those committees consist of independent directors and that he’s excluded from the talks, explaining, “because I’m a conflicted party, I can’t actually be in the discussions of the special committees.” Neither committee has signed off on a deal yet, since “the special committees have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction,” according to Musk.

Musk moderated expectations, saying that assuming a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty “would be overstating it.” Still, he left no doubt about his own view, asking and answering, “Do I think it would be a good idea? Yes.” A second test arrives with Tesla’s upcoming third-quarter report, where profits and cash flow are in focus.

Tesla’s AI Spending Sets It Apart From Rivian and Lucid

Tesla sells electric vehicles and energy storage while spending heavily on robotaxis, humanoid robots and artificial intelligence (AI) computing. On the call, Musk pointed to cooperation on “superintelligence software, chip design, the TeraFab, obviously, robotics” as areas where combining the companies could pay off. That overlap gives a SpaceX tie-up a clear strategic logic for Tesla, which already funds many of the same kinds of projects.

Rivian and Lucid are smaller electric vehicle makers whose results depend on vehicle sales alone. Each company’s narrower model lets stronger vehicle demand flow straight into results, though it also leaves Rivian and Lucid without the robotaxi and AI businesses Tesla is building. Neither stock carries a merger angle.

Heavy spending is the other side of Tesla’s story, and profits and cash flow are the focus of its upcoming report. Musk’s own caution adds a second risk, because the committees haven’t agreed on terms and any deal would still need the backing of Tesla shareholders.

Special Committee Process Is Tesla’s Next Catalyst

Tesla’s third-quarter report and call will show whether they address the special committee process. A clear update on the committees could firm up the merger premium, while a quiet call might leave Tesla stock leaning on its core results.

Any merger terms would still need agreement from both committees and support from Tesla shareholders, and Musk stated that “obviously there’s no guarantee that they will.” Investors considering their TSLA stock exposure should adjust their holdings carefully given that uncertainty until the committee process produces specific terms.

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