Prediction: Broadcom Stock Could Crush the S&P 500 Through 2030

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO | AVGO Price Prediction | AVGO Price Prediction) has become the custom silicon engine of the AI buildout. Fiscal Q3 revenue reached $29.59B, up 85.5% YoY, and AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.70B.

Even so, the stock is down 2.41% year to date while the S&P 500 is up 12.87%. I can’t make that gap add up. So can Broadcom reach $700 per share by 2030?

What’s Holding Broadcom Back Right Now

Shares fell 5.3% over the past week and 5.9% over the past month. Margin mix is part of the problem. Q3 gross margin came in at 75% of revenue, down 210 basis points sequentially, and Q4 is guided to about 73% as memory-heavy XPUs dilute the mix. Concentration is the other worry.

Hock Tan said “the vast majority of compute demand for AI workloads today originates from these concentrated group who develops state-of-the-art frontier models.” With a beta of 1.476, the stock moves harder than the market in both directions.

Wall Street Sees 57% Upside. Our Model Says 22%

The consensus target is $527.59, meaning 57.4% upside. Analysts count 7 strong buys, 40 buys, 3 holds and 0 sells. Our one-year base case is $410.50, or 22.47% upside, within a range of $365.37 to $534.68. Model confidence stands at a high 0.9.

I think our model is too conservative. A mega-cap dampener of 0.5 halves the boost from 94% bullish analysts and an earnings growth contribution of 0.03.

Here’s What It Takes for Broadcom to Reach $700

Reaching $700 from today’s price of $335.18 would require a gain of 108.8%. With forward EPS of $18.376, a price of $700 meaning a forward P/E of 38x. Our base case already meaning 34x, so the bold target needs about 4x of additional multiple expansion.

Earnings growth does most of that work. Our estimate gets a 1.144 lift, reflecting a 1.15 premium for technology stocks and strong analyst support. Tan said Broadcom is “very much on target to exceed $30 in earnings per share in fiscal 2028.” At $30, a $700 stock trades at just 23x.

Management expects AI semiconductor revenue to about double to $115 billion in fiscal 2027 and to $230 billion in fiscal 2028, backed by Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google TPU deals worth multi-tens of billions of dollars annually and OpenAI deployments of over 5 gigawatts in 2028.

In Tan’s words, “Q3 demand was simply hot and we’re just getting started.” Our own 2030 bull path reaches $870.61.

The main risk is supply: shortages of wafers, HBM, power, or data center shells could push deployments out. The traits that show up early in the biggest AI chip winners are the same ones we cataloged in a free playbook.

Where Broadcom Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power

The stock trades at a forward P/E of 18x, which looks cheap next to Q3 non-GAAP EPS growth of 96% year-on-year. Shares sit between a 52-week low of $288.95 and a high of $493.28.

Over 10 years, Broadcom has returned 2396.48% against 259.69% for the S&P 500. At this multiple, earnings delivery alone could carry the stock most of the way to $700.

Is $700 Realistic? Here’s My Take

Reaching $700 by 2030 requires a 108.8% gain. I call it a stretch, but an achievable one.

Three things need to go right: AI revenue has to reach the fiscal 2027 outlook, EPS has to clear $30 in fiscal 2028, and operating margin has to hold near 66%.

A sharp pullback in hyperscaler spending would undermine the thesis. Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but we’ve outlined the path for how Broadcom could reach $700 in 2030.

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