Tesla Continues to Falter and Lose Value: This Renowned Analyst Predicts 60% Returns Soon
A top Wall Street analyst sees Tesla soaring while the rest of the Street keeps slashing estimates and the stock drifts further below its highs. The case for and against that bullish call comes down to one business that Tesla…
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction) currently trades at $374.58. The average price target among analysts is $397.83, which implies 6.2% upside.
That consensus gap is small. The headline number comes from the top of the range. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives holds a Street-high $600.00 target, which implies about 60.2% upside, a gap well above 40%. Tigress Financial’s Ivan Feinseth is right behind him at $550.00.
Tesla is valued at about $1.48 trillion. That price reflects an AI and robotics company, but most of the revenue still comes from cars. Its latest quarterly report tested which of those two stories investors believe, and the stock gave a mixed answer.
A Spending Cut Turned Tesla’s Earnings Beat Into a Selloff
The main blow was a surprise cut to capital spending. Tesla cut its annual capital expenditure forecast by a fifth, and shares fell 3.08% in the next session. That came even though adjusted EPS of $0.48 beat the $0.4511 estimate. Direxion’s Ryan Lee put the worry simply: “Lower capex suggests less of an ‘all-in’ approach to the AI arms race than one would expect from Elon.”
The details below were weak. Revenue of $28.05B was essentially flat year over year. GAAP operating income fell to $718M from $1.62B as R&D rose to $2.76B. Battery shortages limited deliveries to 486,532 vehicles, even with the largest order backlog in four years. Analysts have also cut their full-year 2026 EPS consensus to $1.7421, down from $2.1306 90 days ago.
The damage is mostly specific to Tesla. The stock sits 24.9% below its 52-week high of $498.83 and trades under its 200-day moving average of $386.94. The broader market, meanwhile, has kept rising.
Wedbush Is Valuing Tesla as an AI Company
Wedbush’s case is that Tesla is turning from an EV maker into an AI/autonomous software monopoly. The data supports parts of that story. Active FSD subscriptions grew to 1.74M from 1.04M a year earlier. Cybercab has joined the unsupervised Robotaxi fleet in Austin, and total unsupervised miles grew 8x quarter over quarter to nearly 2M.
Ives believes that scaled robotaxi fleets and recurring software revenue could create a $2T+ to $3T ecosystem valuation. He also points to Optimus. Production of the humanoid robot has started on high-volume lines in Fremont, and the Semi has entered volume production in Nevada. Tesla has $45.4B in cash to pay for all of it.
Most of Wall Street is less enthusiastic. Holds are the largest group with 21 ratings. Estimate revisions have mostly gone down, with 4 downward full-year EPS revisions over the past 30 days. Wedbush’s target covers 12 months. At a forward P/E near 159x, Tesla needs every one of those milestones to arrive on time (we reverse-engineered what the biggest tech winners looked like early and turned it into a free playbook you can grab here).
Detroit and Rivian Fell Harder but Offer More Upside
Several peers have posted sharp recent declines.
General Motors (NYSE:GM) lost 7.7% in a week to $77.22. Its average target of $101.22 implies 31.1% upside. No analysts rate GM a Sell, and 13 rate it a Buy.
Ford (NYSE:F) dropped 8.85% over the past month to $11.94. Its target of $15.56 implies 30.3% upside, although Holds (12) are the most common rating.
Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) is down 38.81% this year at $12.06. Its $19 target implies 57.5% upside, but analyst opinion is split.
Rivian has the largest consensus upside in the group. Tesla has the smallest. Like every target in this group, these are estimates that can change.
Tesla Is Lagging the S&P 500 This Year
Tesla is down 16.71% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 12.03%. Over the past year, Tesla has lost 14.67%, even after a 3.35% gain over the past week. Trailing P/E stands near 358x.
Here is how the 44 analysts covering the stock rate it:
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 15
- Hold: 21
- Sell: 2
- Strong Sell: 2
Tesla’s 60% Case Depends on Robotaxis Scaling Quickly
Tesla earns a closer look here if robotaxi service expands well beyond Austin, FSD subscriptions keep growing and battery supply improves enough to work through the backlog. But caution makes sense if the spending cut means Tesla is slowing down its AI plans, or if operating margins stay near 4.6%.
Jim Cramer has highlighted a structural risk, reasoning that a SpaceX listing would cost Tesla its scarcity value, and that the stock could “keep drifting lower until they either make more progress in robo taxis or the core business finally turns around”. Talk of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX makes that risk harder to judge.
I lean conservative. The consensus target says Tesla is about fairly priced already. Getting to Wedbush’s 60% upside would require nearly perfect execution while earnings estimates are still falling. Until robotaxi revenue shows up in the earnings report, consensus targets for Rivian and Detroit imply more upside than Tesla’s.
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Alex Sirois is a financial writer with experience spanning both retail and institutional investing. He has written for InvestorPlace and held roles at BNY Mellon and Bernstein, giving him a perspective that bridges Main Street portfolios and Wall Street analysis.
Alex holds an MBA from George Washington University and has built his career across multiple industries, including e-commerce, education, and translation — a breadth of experience that informs how he breaks down complex financial topics for everyday investors. His writing is conversational, actionable, and grounded in long-term, buy-and-hold investing principles.
At 247 Wall St., Alex focuses on delivering analysis that is both accessible and useful, with a clear emphasis on helping readers make more informed decisions with their money.
