Walmart Is Having Its Best Month Since 1999, and Is 4% From $1 Trillion

Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT | WMT Price Prediction) rose 2.82% on Thursday, October 22, 2026, and closed at $121.12. On the same day, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.60% to 26,008.86, its worst day since June.

That close left Walmart’s market value at $960.94 billion. That is about $39 billion, or 4.1%, short of $1 trillion. The shares added 0.42% after hours to $121.63.

From a September 30 close of $103.92, Walmart is up 16.6% in October with six trading sessions left, which puts it on pace for its best month since 1999. A discount retailer is trading like a growth stock because money is leaving AI and tech, so a buyer at this price is paying as much for the sector rotation as for Walmart’s business.

What Getting Back to $1 Trillion Requires

Walmart first passed $1 trillion on February 3, 2026, the first retailer to do so. It hit an intraday record of about $126 a share two weeks after it joined the Nasdaq-100.

With 7.93 billion shares outstanding, a return to breakeven requires roughly $126.05 a share. That is still below the 52-week high of $135.16, so the milestone means recovering lost ground.

Thursday’s gain came with no new contract, filing, or guidance change. The most recent reported results are from the second quarter of fiscal 2027, when adjusted EPS of $0.81 beat the $0.7413 consensus.

Walmart’s Lead Over Staples Is Narrower Than It Looks

For October as a whole, Walmart is ahead of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLP), which is up 11.7% from $80.60. The fund is close to its best month since it launched in December 1998.

On Thursday, though, XLP rose 3.31% to $89.99 and beat Walmart. Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) rose 5.58% after its fiscal first-quarter results, while Costco (NASDAQ:COST) gained 1.99%.

The S&P staples sector gained 11.1% over October’s first 16 trading days, its third-best start to a month since 1990. It now trails its February 27 record close by 0.26%.

Bank of America clients sold a record $14.8 billion of individual U.S. stocks in the week through October 16. Staples were among the few sectors those clients bought.

Valuation and Crowding Risks Behind a Defensive Label

Walmart trades at 44 times earnings, and its $0.99 annual dividend yields 0.82%. That income does little to pay you for waiting. Bank of America also placed staples among the highest readings on its Bubble Risk Indicator.

Five of the seven earlier months with similar staples gains came in 2000 and 2001, before the recession that began in March 2001. In February 2026, however, XLP rose 7.8% while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) fell 0.9%, and SPY was up 11.8% six months later.

Prediction-market traders put the odds of a recession by the end of 2026 at 7.5%. Those odds rise to 35% by the end of 2027. If AI concerns ease before then, the money that moved into staples can move back out, which is the whole question our free bubble survivor’s handbook is built around: riding the move while planning the exit.

What Could Change the Case for WMT Stock

The risk outweighs the reward at this price. The business is strong, but Thursday’s move followed sector flows, and at 44 times earnings, the current price already assumes those flows will last.

For investors who want staples exposure, XLP offers a wider alternative worth exploring. Walmart made up 10.80325246068% of the fund’s net assets as of June 30, so you still own some Walmart with far less risk linked to a single stock’s valuation.

Walmart’s next earnings report is scheduled for November 19, 2026, before the market opens, although the company has not yet confirmed the date. The third-quarter adjusted EPS guidance is $0.62-$0.64. A close above $126.05 before then, followed by results above that range, would prove this view wrong. The next ex-dividend date is December 11, 2026.

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