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Ares Management Q3 Earnings Preview: Can A $114B Secret Weapon Save The Stock on Oct. 29?

Ares Management heads into its October 29 earnings report with analyst estimates sliding for three straight months and shares sitting near a 52-week low, yet the firm is sitting on a massive pool of capital that has not started generating…

By Rich Duprey
Published October 25, 2026, 11:08am ET · 2 min read

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A man is seated at a desk, viewed from behind, looking at two large computer monitors displaying dynamic stock market charts with colorful lines and data. To the right, two colleagues, a man and a woman, are seated at a white table with a silver laptop, engaged in discussion. The woman wears glasses and speaks, while the man listens. The background reveals a modern, open-plan office with multiple levels, glass walls, and contemporary architecture.
Financial professionals intently analyze stock market data and charts, a scene mirroring the detailed preparation for earnings reports like Ares Management's upcoming Q3 announcement. © Andrey_Popov / Shutterstock.com

Ares Management (NYSE:ARES | ARES Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results on Thursday, Oct. 29. The stock is down 21.9% year to date and analysts keep cutting estimates. The key question is whether $114 billion of AUM not yet paying fees starts turning into revenue.

ARES price target

Record Inflows Collide With Shrinking Expectations

Last quarter, Ares earned $1.29 per share against a $1.27 estimate. Revenue of $1.43 billion beat the $1.14 billion consensus. The firm raised a record $36.4 billion, AUM rose 17% to $671.3 billion, and fee-related earnings (FRE) climbed 20% to $491.1 million on a 42.2% margin.

Shares hit $143.17 within 30 days of that report, then fell back to $122.07. That leaves the stock roughly 33% to 34% below its 52-week high. Since then, Q3 EPS consensus has fell from $1.4214 90 days ago to $1.2569, with six downward revisions and no upward ones over the past 30 days.

Consensus Estimates Heading Into Oct. 29

Metric Consensus Year-Ago Actual YoY Change
Q3 2026 EPS $1.2569 $1.19 +5.6%
Q3 2026 Revenue $1.236 billion $1.66 billion -25.5%
FY 2026 EPS $5.7605 $4.76 +21.0%
FY 2026 Revenue $4.934 billion $5.60 billion -11.9%

ARES earnings explorer

That revenue decline reflects a tough comparison. Last year’s Q3 revenue beat estimates by 54.73%.

Fee Conversion and Deployment Speed Will Decide This Quarter

Of the $114 billion not yet paying fees, about $93 billion was available for deployment. Together with development assets that haven’t stabilized yet, management says it could generate roughly $828 million in additional annual management fees. Ares also holds a record $170 billion of dry powder.

The pipeline looked strong in July. CEO Michael Arougheti said signed NDAs rose about 35% quarter over quarter, adding that “sponsor activity is picking up dramatically as we head into the back half of the year.” I want to see that pipeline show up in fee-paying AUM, which was near $410 billion.

ARES analyst ratings

Recurring fees will carry most of the quarter. Management guided to only about $10 million of realized net performance income, and the effective fee rate fell to 0.97% from 1.00%. You should also check the wealth channel. The non-traded BDC redemption queue fell from about $1.2 billion to a little over $600 million.

New deals give management plenty to talk about. Ares set up a €1.5 billion European logistics partnership with Norges Bank Investment Management and agreed to buy Infinity Transportation for $2.9 billion. Pathfinder III closed at $8.5 billion, beating its $6.5 billion target.

Fee Growth Has to Outpace the Estimate Cuts

Full-year consensus still calls for 21.0% EPS growth. Management says it is tracking toward the upper end of its 0 to 150 basis point margin improvement target. If Ares shows that record fundraising is turning into fee-paying assets, it gets a credible answer to three months of downgrades. The $114 billion pool now has to start making fees.

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Rich Duprey

After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.

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