Will Harley-Davidson’s Turnaround Rally Hit a Wall on Oct. 29?
Harley-Davidson shares have surged nearly 45% this year on the back of a turnaround story, but two straight earnings-day selloffs raise a pointed question about what the market actually wants to see when the company reports on October 29.
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG | HOG Price Prediction) reports third-quarter results on October 29, 2026. Shares are up 44.88% year to date, so this report will show whether the “Back to the Bricks” turnaround has earned that rally.
A Raised Outlook Sparked the Run
Last quarter, Harley ended a two-quarter miss streak. EPS of $0.75 beat the $0.6426 estimate, and revenue of $1.23B exceeded forecasts even though it fell 5.9% year over year. North American retail rose 3%, the third straight quarter of growth there, and global dealer inventory dropped 17%.
Management also raised full-year guidance. The HDMC operating income range moved up to $10 million to $50 million, and retail units went to 133,500 to 138,500. The stock fell 3.98% on earnings day, then rallied 11.47% over the past month to $28.96.
Consensus Numbers Against a Distorted Comparison
| Metric | Consensus | Year-Ago | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Normalized EPS | $0.4709 | $3.10 | -84.8% |
| Q3 Revenue | $1.07B | $1.34B | -20.2% |
| FY2026 Normalized EPS | $0.6703 | $2.78 | -75.9% |
| FY2026 Revenue | $3.79B | $4.47B | -15.3% |
Last year’s third quarter got a lift of about $301 million from a credit loss reversal tied to the HDFS transaction, so the year-over-year decline makes the core business look weaker than it is.
Dealer Demand and Tariff Costs Will Set the Tone
North American retail is my first focus. Growth slowed from 14% in Q1 to 3% in Q2. Super Glide delivered strong MSRP realization, and Q3 is the first full quarter for Deadwood, which was coming at U.S. dealers in July.
Management guided Q3 shipments to about match last year’s 36,500 units, and it doesn’t expect dealer inventory to rise much. Because of reports of strain at some independent dealers, any extra spending on incentives would raise a red flag.
Margins are the bigger test. Full-year gross tariff costs are still estimated at $75 million to $90 million, and guidance assumes no more significant recoveries after about $20 million came back in Q2. Problems at two domestic suppliers are also weighing on 2026 margins. HDMC gross margin slipped to 27.5% from 28.6% last quarter.
You should also keep an eye on EMEA, where retail fell 9%, and on LiveWire’s expected operating loss of $70 million to $80 million. Buybacks matter too. Harley bought back $158M of stock in the first half under a $1B plan that runs through the end of 2026.
Expectations Are Higher After a Strong Run
Strong numbers haven’t been enough for this stock before. Beats in Q3 2025 and Q2 2026 were followed by day-of falls of 6.46% and 3.98%. Management still expects $150 million in fixed cost savings and $350 million-plus of HDMC EBITDA in 2027. A clean quarter backed by steady guidance would make those targets more credible. I think supporting the margin path will matter more than beating EPS.
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After two decades of patrolling the dark corners of suburbia as a police officer, Rich Duprey hung up his badge and gun to begin writing full time about stocks and investing. For the past 20 years, he’s been cruising the markets looking for companies to lock up as long-term holdings in a portfolio while writing extensively on the broad sectors of consumer goods, technology, and industrials. Because his experience isn’t from the typical financial analyst track, Rich is able to break down complex topics into understandable and useful action points for the average investor. His writings have appeared on The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, Yahoo! Finance, Money Morning, and, of course, 24/7 Wall St. He has been featured in both U.S. and international publications, including MarketWatch, Financial Times, Forbes, Fast Company, and USA Today.
