Are Your Dividends Safe? 4 Yields That Are High for the Wrong Reason
Some of the fattest dividend yields on the market right now come from stocks that have already cut their payouts once, and three more may be quietly building toward the same moment. Here is what the cash flow numbers actually…
A dividend yield is the annual payout divided by what each share trades for. When the price falls and the payout stays the same, the yield rises on its own, even though the company pays you nothing extra. Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ: KHC | KHC Price Prediction) shows how this works. Its quarterly dividend has been $0.40 per share since March 2019, and the stock fell 55.91% over ten years. A fat yield only matters if the payout holds up.
A simple test: a dividend looks unsustainable when earnings and free cash flow barely cover it, or don’t, and debt or shrinking cash fills the gap. (We laid out seven of these warning signs in a free dividend trap guide.)
Kraft Heinz: A 6.6% Yield Built on a Shrinking Business
Kraft Heinz sells packaged staples like ketchup, cheese, and boxed meals. Its $1.60 annual dividend works out to about 6.6% at $24.24. The shares are down 13.2% over five years because the core business keeps shrinking.
Management guides organic net sales down 0.5%–2.0% for 2026 and constant-currency adjusted operating income down 16%–18%. A $7.4B impairment pushed trailing GAAP EPS to -$2.87. On adjusted EPS guidance of $2.03–$2.09, the payout takes about 79% at the bottom of the range, and that is before spending roughly $700M on extra brand investment. The dividend has already been cut once, from $0.625 in 2018.
The case for the payout: first-quarter free cash flow of $766M covered $474M in dividends, an older figure, while management still guides conversion near 110% and has since raised EPS guidance. If cash generation holds while sales slip, the payout can last.
United Parcel Service: Coverage Looks Stretched Mid-Overhaul
United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) pays $6.56 per share a year, a yield of about 6.2%. The stock is down 37.35% over five years as package volumes fell, including a 3.6% year-over-year drop tied to the planned wind-down of Amazon volume.
UPS expects about $5.4B in 2026 dividend payments, subject to board approval, against roughly $6.1B in adjusted free cash flow. That uses about 89% of free cash flow. The dividend is about 122% of trailing GAAP EPS of $5.38, which shows heavy restructuring costs. Cash fell from $5.89B to $4.65B over six months, and interest expense rose 14.3%. The quarterly rate has stayed at $1.64 since February 2025.
For the payout to hold, pricing power needs to keep doing the work. U.S. Domestic revenue per piece rose 6.1%, and adjusted EPS guidance rose to about $7.28; the dividend is near 90% of adjusted earnings.
Pfizer: Adjusted Coverage Hides GAAP Strain and a Patent Cliff
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) yields 5.82% on a $1.72 annual dividend. The stock has rallied 30.72% over the past year but remains 10.8% lower over five years, after COVID product sales faded and patent expirations came into view.
Measured against adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80–$3.00, the payout uses a manageable 57% to 61%. GAAP results look worse. Trailing EPS is $0.76, well below the dividend, after a $3.8B pipeline impairment and $867M in legal charges. Generic and biosimilar competition is expected to cut 2026 revenue by $1.1B–$1.5B. Management has suspended buybacks to pay down debt, and net debt-to-EBITDA is 2.76.
Pfizer is still raising and paying the dividend. It paid $4.9B in the first half and declared another $0.43 payable December 7, 2026. A Vyndamax settlement extends U.S. exclusivity to June 2031, which gives the company time.
Dow: Already Cut Once, Still Paying Through a Downturn
Commodity chemicals and plastics are made by Dow (NYSE: DOW). Its $1.40 annual dividend yields about 4.1%. The shares are up 50.88% this year but still 19.96% lower over five years because of industry overcapacity and weak pricing.
Dow halved its quarterly dividend from $0.70 to $0.35 starting in August 2025. Even after that cut, trailing EPS is -$1.29, so earnings do not cover the payout. Free cash flow of $621M and $692M in the first two quarters covered roughly $505M in dividends. Total liabilities of $44.2B sit against $17.4B of equity, and the company also carries guarantee exposure to its Sadara joint venture.
Recovery signs are emerging. Second-quarter adjusted EPS bounced to $1.44 as polyethylene prices rose, and self-help savings were raised above $1.3B.
What Income Investors Holding These Should Track
For UPS and Kraft Heinz, watch free cash flow against quarterly dividends paid. For Pfizer, watch GAAP earnings and debt paydown. For Dow, watch whether polyethylene pricing holds. If cash coverage falls below the payout while debt rises, the board could be forced to act. Dividend cuts usually send shares down as well, so a high yield is never enough reason to own a stock.
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Lee Jackson has covered Wall Street analysts' equity and debt research and equity strategy daily for 24/7 Wall St. since 2012. His broad, diverse career, including a stint as creative services director at an NBC affiliate in Austin, Texas, gives him unique insight into the financial industry.
Lee Jackson's journey in the financial industry spans more than 30 years, including nearly two decades as an institutional equity salesperson at Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Morgan Stanley. His career spanned pivotal sell-side Wall Street events, from the dot-com rise and bubble to the Long-Term Capital Management debacle, 9/11, and the Great Recession of 2008. This reflects his resilience and adaptability amid market volatility.
Lee Jackson’s practical financial industry experience, gained through a career at some of the biggest banks and brokerage firms, is complemented by a lifetime of writing across various platforms. This unique combination allows him to shed light on the intricacies of Wall Street in a way only someone with deep insider experience and knowledge can. Moreover, his extensive network across Wall Street continues to provide direct access for him and 24/7 Wall St., a privilege few firms enjoy.
Since 2012, Jackson’s work for 24/7 Wall St. has been featured in Barron’s, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, Business Insider, TradingView, Real Money, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Benzinga, and other media outlets. He attended the prestigious Cranbrook Schools in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, and has a degree in broadcasting from the Specs Howard School of Media Arts.
