Intuitive Machines Is Down 27% in October: Stay the Course, or Just Stay Away?
LUNR stock has shed more than a quarter of its value this month alone, and the bears and bulls each have a compelling case. Before the next earnings report forces the question, here is what each side needs to prove.
October has turned into a stress test for speculative space stocks, and Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) sits near the center of it. Intuitive Machines stock is down 27% in October to $10.39 this afternoon. The slide runs from a September 30 close of $14.24. Part of the October figure is a fresh 11% decline from the prior close.
At its core, Intuitive Machines builds lunar landers and sells data and communications services around the Moon, mostly to government customers such as NASA. Over the past year, the company has also moved into satellite manufacturing and national security work through acquisitions, including its January 13 purchase of Lanteris Space Systems.
Momentum from a brief October 27 rebound has faded, and the upcoming third-quarter report is the next real test for Intuitive Machines. What follows is a checklist of what each side needs to see.
How Intuitive Machines Stacks Up Against Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB | RKLB Price Prediction) stock is down 23% in October to $53.29. That’s a softer slide than the one at Intuitive Machines, which shows the selling hasn’t hit every space name equally. AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) stock is down 33% over the same stretch to $39.24, which is even worse than Intuitive Machines stock’s decline.
As a launch provider, Rocket Lab also builds spacecraft and components, while AST SpaceMobile is building a satellite network that connects directly to ordinary smartphones through carrier partners. In contrast, Intuitive Machines pairs landers and spacecraft with lunar data relay and ground networks, leaning more heavily on government buyers.
Why the Bulls Say Stay the Course
Intuitive Machines reported Q2 2026 revenue of $206.17 million, more than four times the $50.31 million from a year earlier. The company’s backlog reached a record $1.76 billion. Intuitive Machines confirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion along with positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA).
National security work at Intuitive Machines grew from 3% of revenue a year earlier to 30% of Q2 sales, helped by an 18-spacecraft award supporting the Golden Dome missile defense constellation. By the August 13 call, Intuitive Machines had reported an additional $300 million in third-quarter awards.
On that call, Chief Financial Officer Peter McGrath stated, “The primary variable determining where we land within the range is the timing of contract definitization and revenue conversion, not customer demand.” Looking further out, Intuitive Machines’ Mission 3 is scheduled for a January-through-March 2027 window on a SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) Falcon 9. The mission will carry Altus-1, the first satellite in a planned lunar communications constellation.
Why the Bears Say Stay Away
Intuitive Machines hasn’t put a date on free cash flow. McGrath noted on the call, “We haven’t guided yet on free cash flow,” adding that the company’s “near-term focus is EBITDA positive.” Its Q2 operating cash burn reached $59.8 million, against $367 million in cash at quarter end.
Losses haven’t let up either, as Intuitive Machines posted a loss of $0.29 per share under generally accepted accounting principles in Q2. Shareholders’ equity at the company stood at negative $290 million. To shore up funding, Intuitive Machines used an at-the-market offering, which lets it sell new shares gradually into the open market at current prices. That program raised $235 million in net proceeds, but each new share diluted existing stockholders.
Revenue at Intuitive Machines leans on a small number of large government contracts and on mission outcomes, so one delayed award or failed landing could reset expectations, and small-cap space stocks also swing hard with market risk appetite, as the quick fade of the late-October rebound shows how fast gains can reverse.
What Intuitive Machines’ Third-Quarter Report Needs to Show
The next test for Intuitive Machines is whether its upcoming third-quarter report shows awards converting into revenue fast enough to support the full-year range, and a clearer timeline for free cash flow would answer the biggest bear argument.
Traders can watch for any update on Mission 3, since a slip outside the early-2027 window could push back the lunar communications revenue the bulls are counting on.
Weighing the Intuitive Machines Decision
For retirement-minded readers, the Intuitive Machines choice comes down to risk tolerance and time horizon. Anyone who needs steady value over the next few years faces a stock that has shown it can drop fast in a matter of days. Patient owners, on the other hand, see a record backlog and a growing national security franchise.
Those who stay with Intuitive Machines stock may find that holding their stake small and staying rule-bound, with a set exit level, makes the swings easier to live with. Some investors prefer keeping their position sizes modest until the free cash flow question resolves. Still, whether to stay the course or stay away from LUNR stock is ultimately your call.
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David Moadel is financial writer specializing in stocks, ETFs, options, precious metals, and Bitcoin. David has written well over 1,000 articles for leading online publications, helping investors understand markets, income strategies, and risk.His work has appeared in The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, U.S. News & World Report, TipRanks, ValueWalk, Benzinga, Market Realist, TalkMarkets, Finmasters, 24/7 Wall St., and others.With a master’s degree in education, David has taught at the elementary, high school, and college levels. That teaching background shapes his writing style: clear, educational, and practical. David has also built a loyal social-media audience by providing trustworthy financial content on YouTube, X/Twitter, and StockTwits.
