ConocoPhillips Just Raised Its Dividend 11%. Is the Stock a Buy?

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP | COP Price Prediction) raised its quarterly ordinary dividend by 11% to $0.93 per share. The company disclosed the increase in its third-quarter release filed with the SEC on November 5, 2026. At the new rate, each share pays $3.72 a year, up from $3.36 under the old payout. In premarket trading, the stock was at $139.12, up 1.59% from a $136.94 close. Even with that gain, shares were down 6.67% over the past week.

What ConocoPhillips Has Locked In, and What Is Only Promised

The only binding commitment is a single larger payment. Shareholders of record on November 16, 2026 will receive the $0.93 dividend on December 1, 2026. Management described the raise as “a top-quartile S&P 500 growth rate.”

Everything else is a stated goal. The company says it is on track to return 45% of its cash from operations (CFO, the cash the business brings in before it spends on new projects) to shareholders in 2026. It also repeated its $7 billion free cash flow growth target for 2029. Andy O’Brien, who is quoted in the release, added: “Importantly, 2029 is not the endpoint.” Much of that target depends on Willow, the company’s big Alaska oil project, where first oil is planned for early 2029. The release gave no shareholder-return framework for 2027.

What the Raise Does for Your Dividend Check

This is the second raise in a row announced in the fall. The payout rose from $0.78 to $0.84 with the November 2025 declaration, then stayed flat for three quarters.

The dividend looks well covered. Free cash flow (the cash left over after capital spending) came to $4.04 billion in the third quarter. Buybacks and dividends combined took $3.40 billion of that. Dividends on their own cost the company $1.025 billion in the second quarter. Cash on hand was $7.77 billion at quarter-end, and total debt stood at $23.29 billion as of June 30.

Reality Check: High Oil Prices Paid for This Raise

Crude prices pushed up by the war built the third-quarter buffer. Dated Brent, the international oil benchmark, averaged $97.00 a barrel, compared with $69.07 a year earlier. Prices jumped after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed following military action that began February 28. Over the same period, production fell by 97 MBOED (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day). In other words, higher prices produced the extra cash. Pumping more oil did not.

2025 is a better stress test because oil was cheaper. That year the company generated $19.796 billion in operating cash flow and spent $12.553 billion on capital projects. It paid $3.995 billion in dividends and $5.118 billion on buybacks. The cash left after capital spending covered the dividend, and buybacks were the part that could flex. The company also listed risks: disruption to its Qatar production, Venezuela collections, and tariffs on steel and aluminum. The release did not say what would happen to buybacks if Brent falls, and the 12:00 PM ET earnings call is the place to ask.

Does the Raise Make ConocoPhillips a Better Income Holding?

Yes, by a modest amount. The ordinary dividend takes a small share of the company’s cash flow and is well covered. Buybacks are the part that absorbs swings in oil prices, so a drop in crude should hit repurchases before it reaches the dividend. Analysts’ average price target is $151.56.

The next test is the first-quarter 2027 declaration, which should come with fourth-quarter results in early February 2027. For comparison, the matching 2026 declaration came on February 5. If that payout is at least $0.93 and any cuts fall on buybacks, this view holds. A payout below $0.93 would prove it wrong.

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