Big Investors Now Doubt Anthropic Can IPO at $1.5 Trillion After the AI Crash
Anthropic's record-setting IPO was supposed to be a victory lap, but three investors are quietly pushing back on price while one blank line in the filing worries them even more. Who absorbs the hit if the deal shrinks or slips?
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On the evening of November 5, 2026, three major investors spoke out. The investors, who plan to buy into Anthropic’s IPO, said the about $1.5 trillion valuation the company had been targeting will likely need to come down. One of them said it could end up closer to $1 trillion.
Anthropic intends to list its Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market. The stock doesn’t trade yet, so you have to look at listed AI stocks to gauge the pressure.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) closed November 5 at $647.05, down 9.55% over one week. Nasdaq Composite companies lost $2.5 trillion in market value that day. More than 50 tech stocks in the S&P Composite 1500 fell 10% or more in the two-day rout after the November 3 midterm elections.
That leaves a tough market for an offering expected to raise up to $100 billion, the largest IPO on record. Keith Lerner, chief investment officer of Truist Advisory Services, described a buyers’ strike in tech.
What Was Said Versus What Was Decided
No valuation has been cut. The amended S-1 filed November 2 still leaves the price range and share count blank, and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS | GS Price Prediction) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) lead 22 banks on the deal.
The $1 trillion figure comes from one unnamed investor. Another investor raised the possibility of a delay, and a smaller offering is a third option, while executives and advisors plan to meet in the coming days and Anthropic declined to comment.
Anthropic is aiming for the week of November 16. However, timing is in question. Four people familiar with investor discussions said buyers doubt the roadshow (the marketing tour for large investors) can be held in time, after an earlier report had it starting the week of November 9.
Who Pays for a Lower Price
Investors once expected as much as $2 trillion, and some now treat $1.5 trillion as the high end. A move toward $1 trillion mostly hurts late private investors who paid peak prices.
For new buyers, a lower price is better, because a bigger discount often takes hold to lock in orders in a weak market. The company can afford to wait with $146.6 billion in cash as of September 30, so it faces no pressure to price into this rout.
Why the Missing October Number Matters
Third-quarter revenue was $17.0 billion, up from $1.4 billion a year earlier, with an operating loss of $567 million. Investors also cited the company’s history of quarterly losses and its large orders to AI expansion partners.
The amendment covers results only through September 30 and leaves the October revenue line blank. Two people said investors want that figure to see whether growth recovered after a recent slowdown. After the AI selloff, investors are more likely to treat a missing month of revenue as grounds to ask for a lower price.
What to Watch Before Anthropic Prices Its IPO
Caution around the IPO allocation and the first days of trading looks right. The growth is real, but the price is being negotiated in a market that is repricing AI, and the company has not yet shown October results.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) offers a useful comparison for AI exposure supported by cash flow. Its AWS cloud sales rose 39% to $45,984 million in the third quarter with $17,773 million in operating income, and its Bedrock platform hosts Anthropic’s Claude models alongside rival models.
The next amended S-1 is the key filing to monitor. If it shows a price range and an October revenue figure proving growth has recovered, the case for the offering at that price would be stronger. If no range is filed before the week of November 16, expect a delay.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
