Odds Huang Will Leave Nvidia Rise To 18%
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It is easy to dismiss forecasts posted on Polymarket. It is mostly a place to bet on sports and, from time to time, elections. But its users can also bet on the weather and who will leave the Trump Administration. On its home page this morning is a bet on whether Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) CEO Jensen Huang will “announce his resignation or be removed by the board” of the company he cofounded by December 31, and another bet on whether he will leave by March 31 of next year.
After a spike late yesterday, the odds he will leave by the end of this year fell to 18% as of 6 AM. The odds he will leave by the end of next year’s first quarter are 23%.
Why are the odds so high? President Trump was “amazed” by the allegations against the Nvidia CEO. Trump also said he did not know about the series of events that triggered the scandal until very recently
However, late yesterday, the problem deepened. Bloomberg reported that Nvidia general counsel Tim Teter “intervened in a US government probe of suspected smuggling of AI chips by Megaspeed International, questioning whether the Trump administration played a role in detaining an executive from the Singapore-based firm who’s now at the heart of a scandal threatening Jensen Huang.” The call was to Commerce Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler, who oversees US rules about tech trade with China. The company involved was Megaspeed International, where Huang’s lover, Alice Huang, was an executive. Singapore authorities detained her. What happened after that, in detail, is “unclear.
The entire exchange raised the question of what Nvidia might or might have done regarding Alice Huang. It also raised whether Jensen Huang or Nvidia was more deeply involved in the scandal first disclosed.
Nvidia has formed a special committee of its board of directors to look into the incident. This involves hiring outside counsel. Huang has had control about the narrative regarding himself and the company for years. That is gone, at least temporarily.
Another open question is the nature of Nvidia’s connection to Megaspeed. Did Megaspeed help move chips for Nvidia AI chips to China? Apparently, Jensen Huang’s future hangs on this more than anything else.
The Nvidia board has a stark choice. Jensen Huang is not just the face of Nvidia. He is the face of the entire AI industry. Nvidia is both the arms merchant to much of the AI world, and it is also one of the sector’s primary sources of capital. Alternatively, the board cannot walk away from negative reports from outside counsel, which may be why the Polymarket figures are so high.
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