Amazon and Google Are Sitting on a $411 Billion Anthropic Windfall
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Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) both reported third-quarter results in late October. Both now face a valuation event outside their own businesses, because Anthropic expects to price its IPO on November 18 and begin trading on Nasdaq as ANT on November 19.
A Reuters calculation puts their combined stakes at $411 billion if shares price at $78, the top of the $70 to $78 range. That windfall measures total stake value at the IPO price rather than profit, and neither company has commented on it. Amazon holds the larger and cheaper position, although much of it arrives only over time.
Amazon’s Stake Carries More Weight in Its Stock Price
At $78, Amazon’s position is worth $271.8 billion against $18.0 billion invested. Google’s is worth $139 billion against $33.3 billion, and that value includes about $10.0 billion Google is spending in the IPO placement itself.
Amazon’s stake equals about 9.3% of its market value at Tuesday’s close, compared with about 3.9% for Alphabet. Because of that gap, the IPO price changes the sum-of-the-parts case for Amazon far more than for Alphabet.
| Lens | Amazon | Alphabet |
|---|---|---|
| Value at $78 | $271.8 billion | $139 billion |
| Invested | $18.0 billion | $33.3 billion |
| Value at $83 (our math) | $289 billion | $147 billion |
A 12% Cap Means Amazon Collects Its Shares Slowly
Amazon will hold 1,920,511,218 non-voting Class N shares after the offering, worth about $149.8 billion at $78. Another 1,563,617,444 shares, worth about $122.0 billion, will be issued later, because its notes bar Amazon from holding more than 12% of Anthropic’s capitalization.
Those notes had about $6.2 billion outstanding at September 30 and convert at fixed prices of roughly $2.09 and $5.05 per share, which explains why Amazon paid so little for its stake. Google’s 2026 agreement has its own 14.99% cap, and the Class N shares give neither company control.
Anthropic’s Spending Flows Back to Both Clouds
Both companies fund Anthropic and also sell it computing power. AWS revenue rose 39% to $45.98 billion, and Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.71 billion. Part of that growth depends on a single AI customer staying well funded.
I would value each stake together with its cloud business, since the same dollars show up in both. Once Anthropic trades publicly, each company will mark its stake to the market price, and that could swing reported earnings every quarter.
Lock-Ups Keep the Gains on Paper for Months
Most existing holders face lock-ups of up to 180 days. Certain holders of more than 0.5% of fully diluted shares face up to 365 days. Google’s placement shares have no lock-up, but they are restricted securities that can be resold only under a registration statement or an exemption.
Bankers reportedly expect to price above the range, toward a $1.5 trillion valuation, which one outside estimate puts at roughly $83 a share. Our math at that price gives about $436 billion combined. If the deal prices below the range or the stock swings after listing, the paper value would fall just as easily.
What Anthropic’s IPO Means for Amazon and Alphabet Investors
Amazon offers the more direct Anthropic exposure among large-cap stocks. Amazon owns the bigger piece at a lower cost, and AWS growth sped up for a sixth straight quarter, with management projecting growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028.
That exposure costs more, though. Amazon trades near 38 times earnings and posted a trailing free cash outflow of $42.4 billion as it builds out AI capacity. All of that spending has to be powered, cooled, and networked by someone, and we covered seven of those suppliers in a free report.
Alphabet is the cheaper alternative at about 13 times earnings, and its cloud business is growing faster. Its value rests mainly on Search and Gemini, because Anthropic is too small a share of Alphabet’s value to move the stock much.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
