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Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO | CSCO Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal Q1 2027 results today at 4:05 PM ET. This is the first quarter of a fiscal year built around $7.5B in AI infrastructure revenue, and the stock enters earnings down 12% in the past month.
Record Year, Rocky Reaction
Cisco closed fiscal 2026 with Q4 revenue of $17.252B, up 17.58%, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.22, exceeding the $1.1688 consensus. Networking orders rose 40%, the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. AI infrastructure orders hit $4.0B in the quarter and $9.3B for the year.
The stock fell anyway, closing earnings day at $113.47 from $123.88. It now trades near $101.67, still up 34.4% year to date.
CEO Chuck Robbins called Q4 “a very strong close to fiscal 2026, marking another record year for Cisco.” CFO Mark Patterson described operating margin as “a better indicator of our profitability.”
Cisco’s Consensus Estimates
| Metric |
Q1 FY2027 Estimate |
YoY Change |
FY2027 Estimate |
FY2028 Estimate |
| Revenue |
$18.12B |
+21.7% |
$73.17B |
$78.09B |
| EPS (Normalized) |
$1.32 |
+32.4% |
$5.15 |
$5.62 |
Q1 EPS consensus was $1.15 90 days ago, then jumped to $1.32 after guidance and held flat. The FY2027 EPS view already stands above the $5.05-$5.11 guide. EPS growth outpacing revenue growth signals the Street is counting on operating leverage to offset gross margin compression.
What to Watch Tonight: AI Orders, Memory Costs and Margin Math
Here are some of the top items I’m watching in Cisco’s Q1 earnings report tonight:
- AI pace. Management dropped its annual order target and forecast AI orders “meaningfully higher in FY 2027 than FY 2026,” with hyperscale revenue building gradually from Q1 through Q4. The focus will be on new Silicon One design wins beyond the three P200 scale-across customers.
- Gross margin and pricing. The Q1 guide of 65%-66% trails Q4’s 66.3%. Price increases added about five points to Q4 growth, with 4 to 5 points forecast for FY2027, front-half weighted. Pay close attention to whether pricing keeps pace with memory inflation.
- Demand beyond hyperscalers. Orders excluding hyperscalers rose 25%, and neocloud, sovereign, and enterprise AI orders exceeded $400 million. Campus orders climbed 20%, a key upgrade signal.
- Security and Splunk. Cisco forecasts security and observability to grow at high single digits in FY2027. Q4 security revenue rose 14%, and investors will want to see that pace hold.
Cisco’s Earnings History
| Quarter |
EPS Surprise |
1-Day Move |
7-Day Move |
14-Day Move |
| Q4 FY2026 |
+4.38% |
-1.58% |
-3.42% |
-3% |
| Q3 FY2026 |
+2.29% |
+2.32% |
+2.31% |
+3.5% |
| Q2 FY2026 |
+1.75% |
-12.32% |
-8.16% |
-7.76% |
| Q1 FY2026 |
+1.86% |
+4.62% |
+5.99% |
+5.8% |
On average, shares moved -0.82% seven days after earnings over the past year.
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