Bill Ackman Says His Worst Bet Could Be “a 10X” With One Trump Tweet
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Bill Ackman told an investing conference audience that his favorite position on a risk-reward basis is also his worst performer of the year. The interview was posted with a transcript at 11:09 a.m. ET on Friday, November 13, 2026.
Ackman said Pershing Square has owned Fannie Mae (OTCMKTS:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCMKTS:FMCC) for 13 years. Pershing expects both to leave government conservatorship, the federal control they entered in 2008, and return to private ownership. He said the shares have fallen more than 60% this calendar year, which cost the firm 800 to 900 basis points of performance, or 8 to 9 percentage points.
Ackman still values the shares at $40 to $50. That compares with about $4 now, and he called the position “a 10X that can happen with a tweet from the president.” Both stocks rose Friday. Fannie closed at $4.51, up 3.20%, and Freddie closed at $3.93, up 1.55%.
What Ackman Said Versus What Washington Has Signed
Everything here remains Ackman’s forecast, and “tweet” is his own word. The president has not promised a release, no plan or date has been announced, and the president has posted nothing about the companies as of November 14, 2026.
Ackman said the midterm result limits what the president can do on economic policy, with Fannie and Freddie as the one big exception. He said he has spoken with the president about the companies, and he said the Treasury Secretary pointed to the back half of the term. Bessent’s own words on October 20, 2026, were looser: “I would imagine that the next year, the year after, we will be tackling the ownership structure.”
Ackman says the market prices the odds of a release near zero, while he thinks they are high. Pershing owns more than 200 million shares of the two companies combined, so this forecast comes from one of their largest owners.
Election Day Gains Already Erased
By our count, Fannie is down 57.97% from its $10.73 close on December 31, 2025, and Freddie is down 61.24% from $10.14.
Both stocks jumped on the November 3 vote and closed at $5.56 and $5.00. By our count, they now sit about 19% and 21% below those closes, so both stocks now trade below the levels they reached after the vote.
Fannie still trades far below its 52-week high of $12.39. Freddie sits well under its own high of $11.80, and Fannie’s highest close was $15.31 on September 11, 2025, which shows how much optimism has drained out of both stocks. Because the stocks are priced as if a release is unlikely, a single statement from Washington could move them sharply in either direction.
Why Common Shareholders Stand Last in Line
Treasury holds senior preferred stock from the 2008 rescue, and that stock gets paid before common shareholders. At Freddie, Treasury’s claim reached $150.4 billion[1] by September 2026.
Freddie earned $3.235 billion[1] in the third quarter. Of that, $3.206 billion[1] was added to Treasury’s claim, and only $29 million was left for common stockholders.
That is why Ackman gives shareholders only 20% of the half a trillion dollars he says a release would create. A Treasury focused on keeping mortgage rates low could choose a structure that leaves common holders even less.
What Could Move Fannie and Freddie Shares Next
Both stocks still carry real risk. Even if Ackman turns out to be right, Bessent’s “next year, the year after” means more years of waiting in over-the-counter shares, and every year of delay brings down the annual return on any payoff.
Pershing Square Holdings, Ackman’s listed fund, also carries the position. Its net asset value, the per-share worth of its holdings, was $83.35 as of November 10, 2026, for a year-to-date return of -1.7%. That result already includes a drag of about 8.4 points from this position through September. The fund still profits if the companies are released, and its other holdings help cover the cost of waiting.
Pershing’s third-quarter 13F filing, its quarterly report of stock holdings, is due Monday, November 16. This conservative view could change. It would shift if Treasury issues a release plan with a date, or if Fannie climbs back above its $5.56 Election Day close because of an actual policy step rather than more comments.
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Omor Ibne Ehsan is a writer at 24/7 Wall St. He is a self-taught investor with a focus on growth, cyclical, and dividend equities that have strong fundamentals, value, and long-term potential. He also has an interest in high-risk, high-reward investments such as penny stocks.
