Can Ethereum Hit $3,000 This Month? The Last Time This Pattern Formed, It Rallied 31% in Three Days

Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) trades near $2,406 on September 14, 2026, up 27.83% over the past month but nearly flat over the past week at 3.23%. Crypto chartist Ali Martinez says ETH is forming the same triangle pattern that preceded its move from about $2,000 to $2,665 in late August, and a similar breakout could send it toward $3,000. 

However, that earlier move had two catalysts, a Treasury buyback announcement and a short squeeze, while the key event on September’s calendar is the Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision. The $3,000 target now hinges on whether the Fed gives ETH the catalyst its chart cannot provide.

What Martinez Forecasted for Ethereum

Ali Martinez posted the setup on X on September 13, noting that the same triangle pattern behind Ethereum’s prior 31% surge in three days is forming again, and arguing that a fresh breakout could carry price toward $3,000. He used “could,” not “will,” and he tied the target explicitly to a break that has not yet happened. 

The pattern supplies the trigger and leaves the direction of that trigger to the market itself, and traders reposting his comment as a flat $3,000 forecast are reading certainty into a conditional statement that Martinez never actually made.

How the Triangle Resolves

A triangle forms when lower highs and higher lows squeeze price into a narrowing range until it breaks in one direction. Ethereum’s previous triangle broke higher, taking ETH from about $2,000 to $2,665 after a Treasury buyback headline triggered a short squeeze. Forced short covering helped accelerate the move, but that buying faded once leveraged short positions were closed, leaving fresh demand to determine whether the breakout could hold.

Ethereum’s current triangle has support between $2,405 and $2,484 and resistance between $2,534 and $2,600. A close above $2,600 would confirm the upside breakout, while a close below $2,405 would invalidate the pattern.

Ethereum Needs More Than a Break Above $2,600

Ethereum needs roughly a 25% gain from $2,406 to reach $3,000, but it first has to reclaim $2,600. ETH reached $2,667 intraday on September 11 before closing at $2,516 and falling back toward $2,406 by September 14. A move through $2,600 would put $2,800 and $3,000 back in focus, but the previous 31% rally was supported by hundreds of millions of dollars in weekly ETF inflows and a clear macro catalyst.

The key scheduled event this week is the Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision. A Reuters poll found that economists increasingly expect a rate hike, with at least one more hike forecast to follow, while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed close to 5%. Higher rates and Treasury yields can make yield-bearing assets more attractive relative to riskier assets such as Ethereum, leaving ETH with a tougher backdrop for a move toward $3,000.

Robinhood Traders Price $2,750 at 38%

Prediction-market traders on Robinhood currently assign a 38% probability that Ethereum finishes September above $2,750, compared with just 5% that it falls below $2,000. The pricing points to a market that expects Ethereum to remain within a relatively narrow range rather than make an immediate move toward $3,000.

Other September estimates place Ethereum around $2,800, with projected ranges extending from $2,405 to $2,950 and downside protection around $2,250. Even the upper end of that range remains below the $3,000 target Martinez highlighted, while $2,250 would put Ethereum roughly 4% below its current price.

Why This Ethereum Move Isn’t Bitcoin’s Move

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) trades at $78,294, down 3.02% for the week even though it remains up 21.71% over the month, and Ethereum’s 27.83% monthly gain over that same stretch outpaced it because Ethereum fell further into the August low and simply had more distance to cover on the bounce back. Ethereum has not decoupled from Bitcoin and taken the lead through 2026, and that structural relationship still matters here. 

Ethereum has a spot ETF product line, a large staked float, and a smaller passive bid than Bitcoin, which means it tends to move harder in both directions once liquidity loosens or tightens. Bitcoin has been rejected at $80,000 repeatedly through September, and another rejection there would likely pull Ethereum lower with it before the triangle gets any real chance to resolve.

What Would Kill the Pattern

The setup breaks if Ethereum closes below $2,405, turning the recent series of higher lows into a lower low. Bitcoin also remains a key confirmation point, with repeated rejection below $80,000 limiting the upside Ethereum has followed through the summer.

The August breakout also shows why the triangle alone is not enough. That move came alongside a Treasury announcement and a short squeeze, giving ETH a catalyst beyond the chart pattern. This time, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on September 16, according to 85% of economists in the latest Reuters poll. (Reuters)

That leaves $2,600 as the key upside trigger and $2,405 as the invalidation level. A sustained break above $2,600, alongside Bitcoin reclaiming $80,000, would provide stronger evidence for a move toward $3,000. A close below $2,405 would invalidate the setup.

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