Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has had a rough start to 2026. The coin dropped 23% in Q1, and is trading around $2,200—$800 below the $3,000 level most institutional buyers have been waiting on.
The Ethereum price has delivered positive returns in Q2 in three out of the last five years, but the coin has averaged a 2.58% loss over that period. With six weeks left in Q2, we asked Gemini whether Ethereum could hit $3,000 by the end of June. Here’s what it said and our review of whether the AI’s output is realistic.
Ethereum’s Q2 Track Record
Ethereum has averaged a 63.07% return since 2016, but the last five years has delivered mixed results.
| Year | Q2 Return |
| 2021 | +17.9% |
| 2022 | -67.6% |
| 2023 | +6.12% |
| 2024 | -5.80% |
| 2025 | +36.5% |
Three of Ethereum’s last five Q2s have ended in the green, with the second quarter of 2025 posting the strongest gain at 36.5%. That figure was driven by the highly anticipated Pectra upgrade, improved institutional confidence, and ETH’s rebound after a weak first quarter. The other two positive quarters, 2021 and 2023, were modest, with the Ethereum price posting 17.9% and 6.12% gains, respectively.
The two times Ethereum ended the second quarter in the red were 2022 and 2024. Ethereum lost 67.6% in 2022, driven primarily by the Terra/Luna collapse and the market crash that followed. Many holders exited positions over that period and ETH fell from $3,200 to around $1,000. The coin recorded another modest 5.80% loss in 2024. Combined with the 2022 crash, that’s why Ethereum’s Q2 average over the last five years is -2.58%.
So far in Q2 2026, Ethereum is barely holding its ground with a modest 5% gain, with six weeks left. Many traders are betting that the Ethereum price could break out, as the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14.
Gemini’s Ethereum Price Prediction for Q2 2026
Gemini gave three price prediction scenarios for ETH by the end of Q2—a bull case at $2,800-$3,000, a base case at $2,300-$2,600, and a bear case at $1,800-$2,100.
Bull Case: $2,800-$3,000
The bull case rests on Glamsterdam. The upgrade introduces enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation, which decentralizes block building and reduces MEV. A confirmed mainnet date before June could give the market something concrete to price in for Q2.
Another key factor that could drive Ethereum’s bullish forecast is ETF inflows. Spot ETH ETFs pulled in over $250 million across three sessions in early May, but have since been dominated by outflows. If consistent inflows return through June and monthly inflows stay above $250 million, it would create the demand base needed to push ETH through the $2,650 resistance zone. With that, the Ethereum price could rally to $2,800-$3,000 by the end of Q2.
Base Case: $2,300-$2,600
We think this is the most likely outcome. Ethereum is currently below its 200-day moving average at $2,335, with the daily MACD in bearish territory.
That said, moderate ETF inflows and a neutral macro environment could see ETH hold out inside the $2,300-$2,600 range through June. This would be steady, but not enough to trigger a break out to higher price levels.
Bear Case: $1,800-$2,100
If the ETH/BTC divergence—which is where both coins break their correlation and move in opposite directions—keeps widening, or the Glamsterdam upgrade is delayed, the realistic outlook for Ethereum in Q2 would drop to around $1,800-$2,100.
What to Watch Before the End of Q2
Ethereum’s Q2 outlook comes down to two key factors: the Glamsterdam upgrade and the ETH/BTC ratio.
A confirmed mainnet date for the upgrade before June could trigger a rally above $2,500, potentially extending to $2,800. However, without it, ETH would have no fundamental catalyst of its own and stay entirely dependent on broader market sentiment, and external factors like the U.S. and Iran peace talks—which given its 0.78 correlation to the Nasdaq 100, is not a favorable position heading into a period of elevated Treasury yields.
Moreover, if the ETH/BTC ratio stabilizes, institutional money could rotate back into Ethereum and ETF inflows follow. But if it keeps drifting apart, even positive macro events won’t be enough to close the Ethereum price’s $800 gap to $3,000 by June 30.
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