Crypto Price Prediction: Can the Solana Price Hit $120 by the End of September?

Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) trades at $101.18 on September 15, up 34.3% over the past 30 days, but still 65.5% below its January 2025 record of $293. Reaching $120 would require an 18.6% gain before September 30, with $110 and $118.84 standing in the way. The rebound has already started to lose momentum below $105, leaving the $105 to $110 zone as the first major test, followed by $112 to $115 and then $118.84.

The downside begins with $100 support, followed by $97.50 and the 20-day EMA at $94.40. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs are at $85.79 and $90.37, while RSI at 52.6, Stochastic at 79, and a slightly positive MACD point to some upward momentum without confirming a breakout. With ETF inflows dropping sharply and the Federal Reserve decision due September 16, SOL needs fresh demand to push through those resistance levels before month-end.

Three Events That Could Shape Solana’s September Outlook

Solana has two network upgrades and a Federal Reserve decision before September 30, giving the market several potential catalysts. Transaction V1 is targeted for epoch 1035 on September 15. It will increase Solana’s transaction size limit by 3.3 times, making room for larger and more complex transactions, including those using zero-knowledge proofs and multisig setups. Existing transactions will continue to work, but developers will need to update their code to use the additional capacity.

Alpenglow comes next, with feature activation beginning September 28 through Agave v4.3, Anza’s Solana validator client. The full mainnet rollout is expected in October, while September 21 is the deadline for delegators to reassign their stake if their validator has not upgraded. That puts the network upgrade schedule directly alongside the price action heading into the final week of the month.

The bigger macro event comes on September 16, when the Federal Reserve announces its latest rate decision. The upper end of the current target range is 3.75%, and traders price a September hike at 85% to 87% following the latest CPI data. Higher rates can make yield-bearing assets more attractive relative to riskier assets such as SOL, giving the Fed decision the potential to shape the demand Solana needs for a move through $110.

What Solana Needs to Reach $120

Reaching $120 would require an 18.6% gain from SOL’s current $101.18 price, but the move would not happen in one step. The first hurdle is $105, followed by the $110 sell wall, $115, and then $118.84. Each break would need enough buying pressure to keep the move going, which makes ETF flows one of the clearest signs of whether demand is returning.

Solana ETFs held $1.41 billion in net assets across nine funds, with weekly inflows reaching $153.87 million for the week ending August 28 before dropping to just $6.18 million the following week. That 96% decline came as SOL stalled around $110, leaving the latest flow data well below the pace that supported the earlier rebound. A return to more than $100 million in weekly inflows would give the move toward $120 a stronger demand base, while another weak reading would leave $105 as the more immediate test.

Bitcoin has also driven Solana’s bigger moves this cycle, with SOL yet to sustain a breakout while BTC remains below $80,000. A Bitcoin move above $80,000 would give Solana the broader momentum it needs to push through $105, $110, and $118.84. Without that Bitcoin breakout, SOL would need much stronger buying pressure to reach $120.

Polymarket Prices a 20% Chance of $120

Polymarket traders currently give Solana a 20% chance of touching $120 before September ends, down 13.5 percentage points over the past week. The same market puts the chance of SOL touching $90 at 29%, giving the downside target a higher probability than the $120 target.

SOL’s weekly chart printed a bullish engulfing candle, where one week’s body covers the previous week’s and can signal a shift toward buyers. CryptoRank has set a September target of $150, although SOL would still need to clear $118.84 before reaching that level. The gap between those projections and Polymarket’s pricing comes down to the resistance still standing between SOL and $120, particularly the $105 to $110 zone.

What Is Keeping Solana Below $110?

Solana is facing pressure from both demand and supply. TVL across its DeFi ecosystem has fallen from $11.5 billion to $5.5 billion, reducing the amount of capital locked in applications across the network. At the same time, 263,000 SOL were minted in a single day, adding to the amount of supply competing for demand. ETF inflows have also weakened sharply, falling 96% from $153.87 million to $6.18 million in one week after helping SOL climb from $75.95 on August 17 to $109.18 on August 27.

That combination helps explain why the rally has struggled to push through $110. Solana reached $110.65 on August 27 but has closed below $110 on every trading day since, leaving the same resistance in place as the market looks toward $120.

What Needs to Change for SOL to Reach $120

ETF inflows need to climb back above $100 million a week, reversing a drop that took weekly flows from $153.87 million down to $6.18 million. Bitcoin needs to clear $80,000, since Solana hasn’t managed a major breakout independent of Bitcoin at any point this cycle. And Solana itself still has to close above $110, the level that’s turned back every rally attempt since August 27.

Transaction V1 activated today at epoch 1035, and the Fed decision follows tomorrow on September 16, putting both catalysts in play within 24 hours of each other. However, neither guarantees the demand SOL needs, since a hike would make holding cash more attractive than holding SOL. At the same time, Transaction V1 unlocks new network capacity without pulling in a single new buyer on its own. If ETF inflows stay weak and $110 still hasn’t broken once those two events pass, Solana would need a fast, compressed run through $118.84 in the final days of September to hit $120 at all.

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