XRP or Ethereum: Which Could Fall When the Fed Hikes?

XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) has fallen 9.4% in today’s session, more than three times Ethereum’s (CRYPTO:ETH) 2.9% decline, as traders prepare for a possible 25-basis-point Fed rate hike this afternoon. Both tokens have been under pressure for the past three weeks, but XRP’s decline has been sharper. That makes today’s move more significant, especially if the Fed delivers the expected rate increase.

With XRP already falling faster than Ethereum ahead of the decision, could XRP fall more when the Fed hikes, or could Ethereum drop more?

How Have XRP and Ethereum Reacted to Past Fed Hikes?

The Fed’s last hiking cycle ran from March 2022 through July 2023, and both XRP and Ethereum fell sharply during that stretch alongside the broader risk-asset market, as investors moved into Treasury yields that no longer required tolerating crypto’s volatility. Neither token has faced a hike since, which makes today’s decision the clearest test of each coin’s rate sensitivity in years.

XRP fell nearly 25% over the three weeks leading into today, sliding from $1.70 to $1.28 as hike odds climbed from near 70% to above 90%. On-chain data shows whales sold or redistributed about 90 million XRP over the past week, and XRP’s daily active addresses fell more than 90%, from roughly 388,000 to 38,000.

Meanwhile, Ethereum traded near $2,550 three weeks ago and now trades around $2,400, down roughly 6%. Based on on-chain flow data, buyers have kept outpacing sellers on the Ethereum network over the past week, even as the price fell. That pattern often means the drop reflects broad market caution more than direct selling pressure on Ethereum itself.

However, XRP fell 9.4% today, the worst performance among major tokens, while Ethereum fell 2.9%. That gap matches the wider pattern from 2026, with XRP down roughly 30% year-to-date versus Ethereum’s 18% decline, even though both tokens have traded through the same rate environment all year.

4 Factors That Could Protect XRP or Ethereum From a Fed Sell-Off

Four separate dynamics could limit how far either token falls once the Fed’s decision lands this afternoon.

Institutional ETF Demand

Per SoSoValue, Spot XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.71 billion in cumulative inflows since launching in November 2025, and they still hold roughly $1.41 billion in total assets today. That capital moved into XRP through regulated funds, and fund managers typically rebalance on a set schedule, so a single rate headline doesn’t automatically trigger selling the way it would for a day trader.

A hike that pushes retail traders to sell doesn’t necessarily pull ETF-held XRP off the market, which could limit how far the token drops relative to its recent pattern of whale-driven declines.

Ethereum’s Net Buying Pressure

On-chain flow data shows buyers have outpaced sellers on Ethereum over the past week, even as the ETH price slid toward $2,400. That kind of accumulation during a decline typically means longer-term holders are adding to positions while short-term traders exit.

If that buying continues once the Fed’s decision lands, it would absorb some of the selling a hike might otherwise trigger, and limit how far Ethereum’s price actually falls compared with a token seeing outright distribution like XRP.

A One-and-Done Signal

Today’s decision depends on whether the Fed hikes and what it signals about future hikes. If the Fed raises rates today and signals no further hikes are imminent, bond yields and risk appetite could stabilize within days, and not weeks.

A hike paired with that kind of guidance would give both XRP and Ethereum room to recover ground quickly, since much of the past three weeks of selling has been driven by uncertainty about the decision itself, not the 25 basis points alone.

Key Technical Support Levels

XRP found buyers at $1.35, with roughly 2.29 billion tokens changing hands at that price, and the token has since traded below it, making $1.35 the level traders would need to reclaim rather than defend. Ethereum trades inside a cluster of its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages between roughly $2,400 and $2,550, a zone that has historically drawn buying interest when multiple long-term averages converge in the same range. Both levels give short-term traders a specific price to defend, rather than selling into an open-ended decline.

Which Coin Would Fall the Most Post-Fed Hike

XRP would fall more than Ethereum if the Fed hikes today, with XRP at $1.28 and Ethereum near $2,400 heading into the decision. XRP fell 9.4% into today’s decision, compared with Ethereum’s 2.9%. On-chain data shows XRP holders distributing while Ethereum holders have kept accumulating through the same stretch. A coin already showing heavier selling pressure heading into a hike usually keeps that pressure once the hike is confirmed.

However, Ethereum’s larger market capitalization means it absorbs a larger share of any broad rotation out of non-yielding assets when Treasury yields near 5% compete directly with crypto for investor capital, and that rotation doesn’t distinguish between which token has better on-chain accumulation data.

XRP has also already absorbed more of that rotation, since its price fell to $0.99 in August, well before today’s decision, while Ethereum’s decline has been comparatively gradual and could still have more room to run if the investors who left XRP months ago start reconsidering Ethereum next.

That alternate case rests on a rotation that hasn’t shown up in Ethereum’s trading data yet, while XRP’s underperformance is already visible in three separate readings from the past month. Until Ethereum’s own on-chain buying reverses, XRP remains the coin carrying more downside risk into today’s decision.

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