Why Is XRP Dropping Today?

XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) is currently trading at $1.28, down 9.4% in the past 24 hours and marking the worst performance among major cryptocurrencies. On September 15, the Senate voted at 2:15 p.m. ET on whether to open debate on the CLARITY Act, a bill aimed at making XRP’s commodity status under U.S. law permanent. Unfortunately, the motion failed with a vote of 49 to 50.

Today at 2 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision, with CME FedWatch indicating a 92% chance of the first rate hike in three years. Additionally, XRP fell below $1.355, a level it had held for five consecutive sessions. This raises the question of what caused XRP’s downturn and where the selling will end.

The CLARITY Act Cloture Vote Failed 49 to 50, and XRP Fell 9%

The failure of the CLARITY Act’s cloture vote, which ended 49 to 50, contributed significantly to XRP’s 9% drop. XRP’s commodity status is based on a joint interpretation by the SEC and CFTC from March 17, 2026, which classified XRP as one of 16 digital commodities. The next commission could alter that interpretation by vote, which is why the bill would have secured XRP’s status under federal law.

While the bill did not explicitly name any tokens, XRP had the most at stake due to Ripple’s ongoing court battle to affirm XRP’s status, unlike Bitcoin, which has never faced regulatory challenges. The cloture vote fell 11 votes short of the required 60 and one vote short of a simple majority, and Senator Chris Coons did not participate.

Following the failed vote, XRP dropped 9.4%. In comparison, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), which has not had its commodity status questioned in years, fell by only 1.2%. Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction), the exchange most affected by the bill, fell 8.65%, so XRP’s move tracked Coinbase rather than the broader cryptocurrency market. 

Meanwhile, Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) and Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) fell 2.9% and 3.4% during the same period, so part of XRP’s drop came from altcoin sell-offs.

However, most of the 9.4% decline still appears to be specific to XRP. After the voting results, Senator Thom Tillis filed a motion to reconsider at 3:01 p.m., which would trigger a new vote and may occur during the lame-duck session. Kalshi traders estimate that the odds of this motion passing before the end of the year are at 20%.

XRP Drops Below Its 200-Day Moving Average at $1.355

XRP held its 200-day moving average at $1.355 for five sessions. This average represents the mean closing price over the last 200 trading days and is often seen by traders as an indicator of whether a coin is on a long-term upward trajectory or has stopped climbing. The price dropped below $1.355 and $1.33 without a bounce, reaching an intraday low of $1.276 before a brief rebound that stalled near $1.28.

According to CoinMarketCap’s on-chain data, 75% of XRP’s realized capitalization is currently down by more than $2. Realized capitalization calculates each coin’s value based on its last on-chain price, reflecting what holders actually paid. Buyers who acquired XRP between November 2024 and March 2026 are experiencing losses of 35% to 55%, and stop-loss orders are clustered just below key price levels. Orders below $1.30 were the first to trigger.

Funding rates have been negative since September 11. Negative funding means that short holders pay long holders every eight hours to maintain their positions, which generally occurs when leverage leans toward short positions, prompting exchanges to reward the long side. Short sellers initiated positions before the vote and added to them afterward, driving the price down with few leveraged buyers left to be forced out.

Support levels below the current price are at $1.25, followed by $1.21 near the 50-day exponential moving average, and $1.10, with a low of $0.9877 recorded on August 17, 2026.

Fed Decision at 2 p.m. ET Could Determine XRP’s Next Move

U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded no inflows on September 11, 2026, signaling quiet institutional demand ahead of the vote. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a quarter-point rate increase are at 92%, which would mark the Federal Reserve’s first hike in three years.

The upper bound of the federal funds rate has been held at 3.75% since December 2025, and XRP has declined more than Bitcoin during every Fed event this year, from Jackson Hole to the August producer price report and the September consumer price report. If the dot plot indicates more rate increases ahead, XRP could drop to $1.21. A balanced projection might hold $1.25, while a surprise hold could push the price back above $1.355.

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5% on September 15, its highest level since 2007. Brent crude closed at $108.75 after Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline. With a government bond yielding 5%, it sets a risk-free return benchmark, meaning any riskier investment must promise a higher return to attract buyers.

Bitcoin has fared better under this pressure for two reasons. Its spot ETFs hold 6.35% of its supply, compared with only about 1.7% for XRP’s funds, and corporate treasuries hold hundreds of thousands of coins purchased years ago. XRP’s largest public buyer, VivoPower, has seen its position drop from $100 million to around $59 million and has stopped adding to its holdings.

Can XRP Hold $1.25 Through the Press Conference?

XRP is down because the crucial bill it needed failed to pass in the Senate, the moving average that supported its price for five sessions has been breached without a bounce, and potential buyers are waiting for the Fed’s rate decision at 2 p.m. ET. Bitcoin also fell 1.2% as its outlook does not rely on a Congress that just voted no.

The selling might stop at $1.25 if the Fed delivers a balanced set of projections, and may reach $1.21 if the dot plot appears hawkish. XRP holding above $1.30 during the press conference would signal the vote is already priced in. If the price falls below $1.21, the next support is the August 17 low at $0.9877, and the cost of waiting is a reconsideration vote that remains unscheduled.

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