Fairshake Has $193 Million for the Midterms. Which Coin Stands to Gain the Most on November 3?

In January 2026, Fairshake, the crypto industry’s leading super PAC, announced holding $193 million for the upcoming midterms on November 3. Of this amount, three significant contributors provided $74 million in the latter half of 2025, with Ripple and Coinbase each donating $25 million and Andreessen Horowitz contributing $24 million.

This capital is strategically aimed at influencing the election to ensure a Congress that aligns with the donors’ vision for crypto regulation. However, the donor landscape reveals differing stakes in the outcome: while Coinbase and Andreessen Horowitz operate across a diverse array of tokens, Ripple’s business is heavily reliant on a single asset—XRP (CRYPTO:XRP). So the question is: which coin is most affected by the election, and what does XRP need from it?

Fairshake Has Already Spent Part of the $193 Million Before November

The reported $193 million figure encompasses the entire Fairshake network’s resources, but the organization didn’t wait until November to deploy funds. According to Fairshake’s own FEC filing in July, it managed approximately $127 million as of June 30, following a $51 million distribution to its affiliate PACs—Defend American Jobs for Republican candidates and Protect Progress for Democrats—as well as $13.3 million spent on its own advertisements.

Notably, these ads targeted primary races rather than the general election. In February and March, Fairshake invested against three Illinois Democrats, two of whom supported a 2025 state law imposing new regulations on digital assets, yet two of these candidates still secured their nominations. This reflects the super PAC’s role not only in financial backing but also in shaping candidate selection, albeit not always successfully.

Looking back at 2024, Fairshake reported spending a staggering $195.8 million that cycle, achieving a 91% success rate in the general election races it entered. While this suggests Fairshake strategically selects competitive races, it does not guarantee the investment directly influenced any results.

Ripple Is the Only Big Donor That Depends on Its Native Token

Interestingly, Ripple stands out among the major donors for its unique dependence on a single token. Coinbase’s $25 million supports a trading platform that facilitates transactions across hundreds of tokens, so favorable regulations benefit it broadly—no single law determines its fate. Similarly, Andreessen Horowitz’s $24 million supports a venture capital firm invested in diverse projects like Solana and Ethereum, where a single bill may affect valuations but not the firm’s overall vitality.

Conversely, Ripple’s operations hinge directly on XRP, which functions as the bridge asset for its payment solutions. Consequently, XRP’s legal status is pivotal to Ripple’s U.S. operations. Given that Ripple made the largest contribution tied to a midterm, with potential implications for Senate and House committee leadership and crypto regulations, its involvement shows significant stakes in the electoral outcome.

XRP Is the Coin With the Most at Stake on November 3

Three primary factors position XRP as the token with the most at stake this election cycle. First, Ripple’s $25 million donation is the largest from a firm that depends wholly on a single token, making regulatory shifts concerning XRP immediately impactful for Ripple’s business.

Second, XRP faces unique legal scrutiny as the only major token subject to an SEC lawsuit challenging whether it qualifies as a security. The coin’s fate is intricately tied to the outcome of the CLARITY Act, which will determine whether the SEC or CFTC governs various tokens. As of September 19, while the bill has cleared the House, it still awaits Senate approval, leaving XRP’s regulatory future in limbo.

Third, market performance matters. As of September 19, the XRP price is $1.41, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 23.14% and a 12-month drop of 52.74%. By comparison, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is down 7.18% at $81,228, Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) has fallen 11.7% to $2,630, and Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) is down 9.02% at $110.67. XRP’s substantial decline necessitates robust legislative support to reverse its trajectory.

Is November 3 the Catalyst the XRP Price Needs?

The November 3 vote marks a critical juncture for regulations XRP holders have awaited since the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020. If the election yields a Senate in favor of the CLARITY Act, XRP could gain significant clarity on its status, potentially attracting new investment flows, including U.S. spot ETF activity that would positively influence XRP’s price.

At its current level of $1.41, this does not reflect an optimistic outcome. However, Fairshake’s funds are utilized for advertising rather than direct legal actions. The PAC picks races strategically, as shown by its Illinois primaries, where investments did not guarantee success. A key post-election metric will be whether XRP closes above $1.52, its closing price on August 23. If it remains below $1.41, the $25 million investment may not deliver its intended impact.

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