XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is trading above $1.42 and has held this level over the last week. The coin briefly traded above $1.50 on May 10, but selling pressure from XRP holders waiting to break even at the $1.44-$1.45 zone pushed XRP back to its current price.
Between January 2025 and January 2026, XRP fell from $3.38 to $1.84—marking a roughly 46% decline over 12 months. The decline has made XRP holders curious, with many wondering whether XRP would reclaim $3 before the end of Q4 2026. We examined how XRP has performed in the last five years and the key factors that could support a move back to $3 in 2026.
How XRP Has Performed Over the Last Five Years
XRP has swung both ways in the last five years, but the gains have outweighed the losses over that time. The table below breaks down XRP’s performance over these periods:
| Year | Annual Return |
| 2021 | +277.21% |
| 2022 | -59.11% |
| 2023 | +83.90% |
| 2024 | +236.31% |
| 2025 | -11.29% |
XRP’s best calendar year in the last five years was 2021, when the coin surged by 161% in Q1 following a broader market rally and growing trader confidence that XRP would prevail in the SEC lawsuit. By the end of Q4, XRP pulled back with a modest 12.7% loss, but the damage was minimal and didn’t affect its 2021 annual return of around 277%.
Market sentiment flipped in 2022 as the crypto market collapsed, interest rates rose, and the SEC lawsuit against Ripple created uncertainties among holders. XRP posted losses of around 59.11% by the end of Q4 2022—driven by quarterly losses in Q1 (-2.14%), Q2 (-59.4%), and Q4 (-29.2%). In 2023, market sentiment reversed again, with XRP posting about 58.8% gain in Q1. The coin carried that momentum into Q4, closing 2023 with an 83.90% annual gain.
XRP maintained momentum into 2024, with the coin posting a 280% gain in the fourth quarter after Donald Trump’s election win and his positive stance about crypto assets triggered a market rally. That year delivered about 236.31% in annual return, with XRP reclaiming the $3 mark on the back of the Trump-driven Q4 rally.
Market sentiment weakened again in 2025 after XRP hit a cycle high of $3.65. The coin lost 35.4% in Q4 and recorded an annual return of -11.29%. The decline continued into Q1 2026 (-27.1%), with XRP just entering a recovery phase in Q2 with a modest 7% gain so far.
What Needs to Happen for XRP to Reclaim the $3 Level in 2026?
At $1.42, XRP needs roughly 111% upside to reclaim the $3 mark. But such a performance would require XRP’s near-term catalyst—the CLARITY Act—aligning in Q2 2026.
The Senate Banking Committee is voting today on the CLARITY Act, bringing the bill closer to its July 4 White House deadline. The committee released the draft of the bill on April 12 for members to review, and more than 100 amendments were filed within 24 hours. Most amendments focused on preventing government ownership of crypto assets, stablecoin rewards, and stopping the Federal Reserve from creating a central bank digital currency.
The crypto industry already backs the bill, with the White House Crypto Director, David Sacks, and Andreessen Horowitz co-founder, Marc Andreessen, publicly declaring support on X (formerly Twitter). If the Banking Committee approves the bill, XRP could reclaim $1.80 and potentially rally toward $2 as investors position for the bill to secure the 60 votes needed to overcome a potential filibuster and advance to a final Senate vote.
Further momentum could come if the bill clears the House and reaches Trump’s desk for signing in June. Passage in the House could push XRP towards $2.50—a price last tested in November 2025—and send the token into Q3 with one of its strongest catalysts of 2026. When this happens, XRP would enter Q3 with regulatory clarity it hasn’t had since Ripple reached a settlement with the SEC in 2025.
Historically, XRP has averaged a 28.4% gain in Q3 over the last five years. If that pattern repeats after XRP reclaims $2.50, the token could rally to $3.21 in Q3 alone. By the end of Q4, and even after profit-taking from XRP holders locking in gains, XRP could still sustain a move above the $3 level.
Can XRP Sustain a Move Above $3 by Q4 2026?
XRP can reach $3 by Q4 2026 and potentially sustain a move above that level, but the outcome would depend on the CLARITY Act and how the market reacts to each stage—from the Senate Banking Committee to the full Senate, the House, and Trump’s signature.
History shows that XRP rallies on the back of positive regulatory developments, then cools off as profit-taking sets in. If XRP rallies to $3.20 in Q3, many holders will take profit, which could drag the coin below $3 unless strong and sustained demand absorbs the selling pressure.
If demand remains consistent into Q4 2026, XRP would sustain a move above $3. If it fades, the coin would slip back towards $2.60-$2.80.
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