Bitcoin Is Down Just 1.2% for 2026 After Clearing $86,000. Can It End the Year Green?
Bitcoin sits just a whisker away from erasing its 2026 losses, but a rising rate environment, a stalled Senate bill, and fading short-squeeze fuel threaten to pull it back before December 31 arrives.
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One crucial number will determine whether Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) wraps up 2026 positively: $87,498. This is where Bitcoin opened the year on December 31, 2025. As of September 22, it’s trading at $86,276, which leaves a gap of about $1,200, or 1.2%.
Just a week ago, the situation looked much worse. Bitcoin dropped to $74,888 on September 15, the day the Senate rejected a key crypto market structure bill, but it has since bounced back by 15%. However, simply recovering from that low won’t guarantee a positive end to the year. To finish in the green, Bitcoin must close above $87,498 by December 31, and there are only 14 weeks of trading left to achieve this.
Bitcoin Has Climbed 15% From Its September 15 Low
After experiencing a sharp decline, Bitcoin has begun to regain some ground. The price dropped across two sessions, hitting an intraday low of $74,888 on September 15 and closing the day at $75,584. It recovered slightly by the following day, closing at $76,145 after a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Nevertheless, buyers have re-entered the market over the past week. Bitcoin rose to $80,875 on September 18, followed by $81,160 on September 20. It eventually reached a high of $87,397 and closed at $86,595 on September 21, although it has been trading in a narrow range since then.
While the Bitcoin price has risen by 14.4% over the past week and 11.2% over the last month, it remains down 23.3% over the past year. Those who purchased Bitcoin near last year’s peak are still facing significant losses. The key level to watch is $87,498, as the one-year decline can be a bitter pill for many holders.
A $999 Million Fund Day and Forced Short Covering Paid for the Rally
The recent uptick in Bitcoin’s price can be attributed to two main factors, but only one is likely to be sustainable. On September 21, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a remarkable inflow of $999 million, marking the strongest daily total in nearly a year. Key players included BlackRock with $381 million, ARK with $289 million, and Fidelity with $239 million. This figure reflects new capital entering the market rather than reallocating existing investments.
On that same day, spot Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) funds also attracted about $270 million, contributing to the overall crypto market crossing $3 trillion. Meanwhile, over $800 million in short positions were liquidated within 24 hours, as traders were forced to buy back to cover losses. However, this price surge driven by forced short covering may not last.
Two Rates and a Stalled Bill Stand Between Bitcoin and $87,498
Recent interest rate adjustments and stalled legislation pose challenges for Bitcoin as it seeks to reach $87,498. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, its first increase since 2023. Projections suggest more rate hikes are likely before the end of the year, with the next decision coming on October 28, which falls within the critical trading window for Bitcoin.
Additionally, the bond market is exerting pressure, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.96%, nearing its 5.01% high from September 16. Higher yields mean Bitcoin, which pays no interest, must offer a compelling reason for investors to choose it over bonds.
The recent stalling of the CLARITY Act in the Senate has taken away another potential support for Bitcoin. With regulators now writing rules without a clear legislative framework, new regulations could emerge before December, adding further uncertainty.
Can Bitcoin Achieve a Green Year in 2026?
As things stand, Bitcoin can still finish 2026 positively. With a mere 1.4% gain needed over the next 14 weeks, it requires less effort than ever this year. The recent recovery stemmed from a significant $999 million fund inflow and forced short covering, but only the fund inflows are likely to sustain the momentum past December.
The stakes are high, as the difference between a flat year and a negative one is only a daily close above $87,498. If the price drops below its September 18 close of $80,875, it could trigger a return to the lows seen earlier in September. Should fund inflows maintain their recent pace, Bitcoin may just manage to finish the year in the green. If they fade and $80,875 breaks, 2026 goes in the books red.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
