Coinbase CEO: Did Bitcoin Bottom Out on July 1? Here’s Why He’s Optimistic About the Next Two Years
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong pinpointed an exact date and price as Bitcoin's cycle bottom, and the market has since moved in his favor. But his reasoning rests on shaky ground, and the key levels traders are watching could still prove…
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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently shared his thoughts on Bitcoin, saying he believes the cryptocurrency hit its lowest point on July 1, 2026, at $57,718. In an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on September 10, he noted that previous Bitcoin downturns have typically lasted around 12 months, and since that timeframe is now behind us, he sees a potential target of $400,000 for Bitcoin by 2030.
Since Armstrong’s prediction, Bitcoin has moved in his favor, currently trading at $84,403—up 8.4% over the week and 46% higher than the July low. On September 21, Bitcoin even peaked at $87,397. However, Armstrong’s claim rests on a single intraday price point, and his argument lacks stronger support.
Armstrong Called the Bitcoin Bottom on One Intraday Print
The $57,718 price was the lowest recorded during the July 1 trading session, but Bitcoin closed that day at $59,961, which was higher than the previous closing price of $58,524 on June 30. This suggests that the market didn’t confirm a new low on a closing basis.
Many traders prefer closing prices as more reliable indicators, since brief price spikes can happen due to single large trades or low overnight trading volume.
A fair interpretation of Armstrong’s claim is that July 1 marked the lowest intraday price for the current cycle. His main evidence is that Bitcoin hasn’t gone lower since then. However, this kind of assessment can be misleading, as a price can appear stable until it actually drops again.
As the head of one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Armstrong has access to trading data that others may not, allowing him to see the buying and selling activity on his platform. This insight adds credibility to his statements, but it’s noteworthy that he emphasizes a specific price point rather than overall trading volume.
The Drawdown Clock and the 2028 Halving Are the Stronger Half of His Case
Armstrong pointed out that Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 on October 6, 2025, and by the time of his comments, the ensuing decline had already surpassed the typical 12-month duration he mentioned. This observation hinges on timing rather than a specific price point, making it a stronger part of his argument.
A crucial event to consider is Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, slated for April 2028. Halvings historically lead to price increases because they reduce the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation while demand persists. This calendar-based factor supports Armstrong’s optimistic outlook for the next two years.
Bitcoin Has Already Cleared the Level That Tested the Call
When Armstrong made his predictions, Bitcoin was nearing the September 3 intraday high of $82,283. Just days later, it surpassed that level, hitting $87,397 on September 21 and closing at $86,595—the highest daily close since January. During this period, U.S. spot Bitcoin funds saw unprecedented inflows, taking in $999 million in a single day, the largest amount since the peak in October 2025. This capital influx provides the support Armstrong’s bottom call was missing.
Key levels to watch include the $87,498 level from the start of the year, about 4% above the current price, and the September 18 close of $80,875, about 4% below it.
Is July 1 Truly the Bitcoin Bottom?
In our view, Armstrong’s prediction seems on track for market direction, but it relies on weaker evidence. The timing of past declines, the approaching halving, and the recent influx of funds together provide stronger justification than the July 1 wick alone.
To validate this bottom call, traders should watch for Bitcoin to hold above $80,875. If it closes that mark below, the July low may still be in play. Conversely, if Bitcoin surpasses $87,498 and holds that momentum into October, it could signal a sustained upward trend rather than a minor rebound. The $400,000 target for 2030 is a separate discussion, as it depends on Bitcoin reclaiming its previous peak of $126,198, about 50% higher than its current price.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
