Can Solana Clear $120 Before Alpenglow Activates?
Solana's biggest consensus upgrade in years activates in days, yet sellers keep slamming the door on a critical price level every time bulls get close. What happens to the trade if the upgrade sparks selling instead of celebration?
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Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) has risen 21% over the past month, and with the highly anticipated Alpenglow upgrade just three days away, the question remains: Can the crypto asset break through $120 before this pivotal event? Currently trading at $117, Solana has attempted to surpass the $120 threshold three times without success.
As Solana prepares for its most significant consensus upgrade in years, set to activate on September 28, 2026, it faces a crucial hurdle. Despite its recent performance, Solana has failed to close above $120 on three consecutive attempts: $119.99 on September 21, $119.46 on September 22, and $119.75 on September 23, before dropping to $113 later that day.
The coin bounced back to a close of $117 on September 24, yet it remains 39% below its value from a year ago.
Alpenglow Cuts Solana’s Finality From 12.8 Seconds to a Target of 150 Milliseconds
Alpenglow represents a major overhaul of Solana’s transaction agreement process. It will replace the existing TowerBFT system with a new voting method called Votor. Validators, the computers that confirm transactions on the network, will see improved efficiency, which is crucial for real-time applications.
Currently, Solana’s finality—the time it takes for a transaction to become permanent—averages about 12.8 seconds. Alpenglow aims to reduce this to roughly 150 milliseconds. For payment applications and markets involving tokenized assets, knowing a transaction is final without a long wait opens up new development opportunities.
However, 150 milliseconds is still a target, as it has been measured on a test network but not yet on the main network.
Fund Money and a Tokenized-Finance Push Are Behind the 21% Month
Solana has attracted a considerable influx of funds, with SOL ETFs (exchange-traded funds) posting 12 consecutive weeks of inflows and now controlling about 2.5% of the total supply. This steady inflow suggests strong investor demand rather than purely volatility-driven trading.
Additionally, the Solana Foundation is pushing into tokenized finance by bringing in experienced professionals from Binance and Polygon. This strategic move aims to leverage faster finality for digital bonds, funds, and stocks on the blockchain.
Sellers Have Defended $120 Three Times, and a Dated Upgrade Gives Them a Reason to Sell
However, $120 is proving a tough barrier, with sellers having defended it three times. Traders often adopt a “sell-the-news” tactic when a significant upgrade is on the horizon. Given the climb from $99 on September 16 to the upper $110s just ahead of Alpenglow, some of this price action may have been driven by early positioning.
Can Solana Surpass $120 by September 28?
Given current market dynamics, it seems unlikely Solana will close above $120 before the upgrade begins. Despite recent positive trends supported by fresh investment, sellers’ consistent defense of the $120 level raises doubts. Furthermore, with a known upgrade date, short-term traders may opt to sell their positions.
For Solana to prove this skepticism wrong, it first needs to hold above the September 24 low of $112 (about 4% down) and then close above $120 with strong volume, similar to September 21. If the upgrade prompts selling activity instead, key support levels will be the September 21 low of $111 (about 6% down) and the September 18 low of $101 (about 14% down).
In conclusion, as we approach Alpenglow’s activation, pressure on Solana to break the $120 barrier intensifies. Only time will tell if it can overcome this significant challenge.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
