Which Is More Likely: Bitcoin at $1 Million or XRP at $10?
Bitcoin and XRP are both chasing iconic round-number price targets, but the path to each one carries market cap implications that could reshape the entire crypto landscape. The real question is not which coin needs a bigger percentage gain, but…
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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) needs to rise about 12 times its current value to hit $1 million, while XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) only needs to rise about 6.5 times to reach $10. This means XRP requires a smaller price jump. However, this smaller increase is just part of the story, as each price target comes with significant market value implications that the broader cryptocurrency space must account for.
Both cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a good quarter recently. Bitcoin has increased by 41.7% over the last 90 days, bringing its price to around $84,883, while XRP has risen by 46% to approximately $1.53. These two round figures, $1 million for Bitcoin and $10 for XRP, create a compelling discussion about their future potential.
Bitcoin at $1 Million Means a $20 Trillion Coin, Seven Times the Current Crypto Market
To understand what it means for Bitcoin to reach $1 million, we need to look at its market capitalization, which is calculated by multiplying the price per coin by the total number of coins in circulation. Currently, there are about 20.1 million Bitcoin in existence. If Bitcoin were priced at $1 million each, its market cap would soar to about $20.1 trillion.
This is a staggering figure compared to Bitcoin’s current market cap of around $1.7 trillion, and it represents nearly seven times the total value of the entire crypto market, currently around $2.9 trillion.
For Bitcoin to achieve this goal, substantial investment from outside the crypto market would be necessary, as it already commands about 58.6% of the market share, a metric known as Bitcoin dominance. As more coins are mined, this value target becomes even more challenging, especially as the total supply approaches its maximum cap of 21 million coins.
XRP at $10 Means a $629 Billion Coin, About a Fifth of the Current Crypto Market
On the other hand, if XRP reaches $10 per token, it would have a market cap of about $629 billion, compared to its current market cap of roughly $96.6 billion. This represents about 22% of the total crypto market, a significant increase from XRP’s current share of around 3.3%.
Unlike Bitcoin’s lofty target, XRP’s price goal can fit within the existing market size. However, it still requires substantial market share gains, as $629 billion is nearly double Ethereum’s current valuation of about $330 billion. Achieving this would require XRP to draw investment away from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies.
Additionally, XRP’s circulating supply is also growing. Ripple, the company behind XRP, periodically releases tokens from its escrow account, increasing the number of coins in circulation. This raises the challenge of achieving the $10 target even higher over time.
Both Coins Are Still Down for 2026, and XRP Fell Harder
Despite the recent rebound, both Bitcoin and XRP are still down for 2026, with Bitcoin declining 3.7% for 2026 and 23.2% over the past year. XRP’s situation is even grimmer, with a 17.3% drop in 2026 and a 45.8% fall over the past year.
XRP’s steeper decline puts extra pressure on its price goal since it needs to capture more market share. A cryptocurrency that loses value more quickly when buyers leave must prove it can attract and hold new investors before aiming for a fifth of the market. Currently, U.S. spot XRP ETFs have just started to create more consistent demand, attracting around $75.6 million between September 22 and 25, according to SoSoValue.
Is XRP at $10 More Likely Than Bitcoin at $1 Million?
In our view, XRP reaching $10 is the more achievable goal because it requires a smaller price increase and a market cap that falls within the current market size. Conversely, Bitcoin’s target of $1 million demands that the overall crypto market expand significantly, by about seven times its current value.
We believe that both targets are unlikely to be hit before the end of 2027. For XRP to reach $10 first, it must first recover to its previous 2026 opening price of approximately $1.84, which is about 20% higher than its current level. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s market dominance would need to decrease as funds flow into larger altcoins.
If Bitcoin maintains its stronghold in the market, XRP’s potential remains tethered to Bitcoin’s performance, and a disappointing year-end close for both cryptocurrencies could delay either target well beyond 2027.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
