Bitcoin Price Prediction for October 2026
Bitcoin has surged nearly 44% over the past three months, but a perfect storm of rising oil prices, slowing ETF inflows, and a Federal Reserve meeting that could change everything threatens to unravel the rally before October is over.
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As October 2026 approaches, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is trading at approximately $83,070. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28 could play a crucial role in determining if Bitcoin continues its summer rally or starts to pull back. This meeting is key to any Bitcoin price prediction this month, especially in light of rising oil prices, currently above $100 a barrel, and slowing inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin has surged 43.8%, yet it remains down 25.0% year over year. The big question is: Can Bitcoin maintain its momentum in October while the Fed considers raising interest rates yet again?
Bitcoin’s 44% Summer Rally Still Leaves It 34% Below Its Record
Bitcoin has recovered significantly, climbing about 30.0% in the last 60 days and 43.8% over the past 90 days. It has risen from about $57,800 in early July, inviting more buyers back into the market.
Despite this rebound, Bitcoin remains 34.1% below its all-time high of $126,080 recorded on October 6, 2025, and is down 3.8% for the year. The recent rally has healed much of the damage but hasn’t erased the losses, leaving many long-term investors with a 25.0% loss.
The Fed’s October 27-28 Meeting Could Set Bitcoin’s Direction
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%—its first increase since 2023—in a unanimous decision. The Federal Open Market Committee is set to meet again on October 27-28. According to CME FedWatch, there’s a 64% probability of another quarter-point hike.
Higher interest rates can negatively affect Bitcoin because it pays no interest or dividends. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.17% as of September 25, investors may find better returns in government bonds than in Bitcoin. While traders are already pricing in a rate hike, a pause in rate increases could pleasantly surprise the market and provide support for Bitcoin.
Oil Above $100 and Slowing ETF Inflows Add Pressure on Bitcoin
Complicating the situation, rising oil prices have returned to the forefront. After President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude prices have climbed back above $100 a barrel. This could fuel inflation, giving the Fed more justification to raise rates.
Additionally, inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which currently hold $108.4 billion, have begun to slow. After almost $1 billion flowed into these funds on September 21, the daily inflow dropped to $134 million by September 25. While buyers are still putting money into Bitcoin, the urgency has diminished.
With no clear timeline for resolving issues in the Strait, the oil market could significantly affect Bitcoin’s price in October, whether before or after the Fed’s meeting.
Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch in October 2026
For Bitcoin to maintain its upward trend, it first needs to surpass $87,397—the high reached on September 21, which is 5.2% above its price on September 30. Breaking through this level could pave the way for a rise toward the psychological milestone of $90,000, representing an 8.3% increase.
On the other hand, Bitcoin is trading just below the $83,513 low from September 23, suggesting buyers are already feeling pressure. The next support levels to watch are $80,875, the close from September 18 (about 2.6% lower), and $75,585, the close from September 15 (nearly 9.0% lower), when the funds were posting outflows.
Bitcoin Could Face a Tougher October Than Its Rally Suggests
October 2026 appears to be a more challenging month for Bitcoin than its impressive 90-day gains might suggest. Rising interest rates, a 5.17% Treasury yield vying for investment, expensive oil, and declining ETF inflows all point to tough conditions for Bitcoin. Barring a pause in rate hikes or a return to $1 billion in daily ETF inflows, Bitcoin could be confined to a trading range between approximately $75,585 and $87,397.
However, if the Fed surprises the market or ETF activity picks up, Bitcoin could break above $87,397 and aim for $90,000. Conversely, if the Fed hikes rates while Brent oil prices remain high, Bitcoin’s price might drop back toward the lows seen in mid-September. With the Fed’s decision looming on October 28, this single meeting may well determine Bitcoin’s price trajectory for the remainder of 2026.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who's spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining "the cloud" was peak innovation). Since 2018, he's written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think "gas fees" is a typo. When he's not writing or staring at charts, Sam's either: - Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) - At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god - Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
