Bitcoin Price Analysis: Recent Buyers Break Even Near $87,700. Could Their Selling Stop BTC’s Rally?

Recent Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) buyers have an average purchase price of roughly $87,700, according to Glassnode data on Bitcoin’s cost basis. Many of these investors may decide to sell their coins once the price climbs back to that level. As of October 21, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $83,495, a 2.5% increase over the past day. This puts the potential selling pressure roughly 5% above the current price.

Bitcoin has faced resistance just below the $87,700 mark on three occasions. It peaked at $87,397 on September 21, $87,283 on September 23, and $87,249 on October 2, closing lower each time.

There is mounting pressure as Bitcoin has rallied 27.7% over the last 90 days, and large wallet holders continue to accumulate. However, many buyers are holding Bitcoin at a loss just above. The question remains—will their selling halt Bitcoin’s rally, or are traders overstating the selling pressure at that level?

Why Traders Keep an Eye on the $87,700 Bitcoin Cost Basis

The cost basis is the average price a group of buyers paid for their Bitcoin. Glassnode estimates this figure by analyzing the price at which coins last moved on the blockchain and averaging that across different holders.

Traders view this number as a resistance indicator, particularly because of behavioral trends following losses. Those who purchased around $87,700 have been “underwater” for weeks as the price fell. When it rises back to their purchase price, many may choose to sell to recover their investments, which can generate enough selling pressure to halt a rally.

Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks through and sustains prices above this level, those holders will shift into profit. This could reduce their incentive to sell, turning the former resistance into support. Some social media traders suggest holders might not sell at $87,700, but they haven’t provided data to back that claim.

Why the $87,700 Selling Pressure May Not Be as Strong as It Appears

An average hides a wider range of prices. Some recent buyers paid well above $87,700, while others bought lower. As a result, selling pressure might begin below this mark and extend beyond it. The $87,700 figure represents the center of a broader supply zone, not a single price point.

Another issue with this metric is that it doesn’t capture all trading activity. Much Bitcoin trading occurs within exchange order books and doesn’t show up on the blockchain. Shares of spot ETFs trade on stock exchanges, with custodians holding the underlying Bitcoin. This model may overlook many buyers it attempts to represent. Additionally, if custodians or exchanges transfer coins between their wallets, those transactions can shift the cost basis estimate without any trading occurring.

Large wallet activity faces similar limitations. Lookonchain recently reported that three newly created wallets received 1,090 BTC—valued at approximately $90.4 million—from Wintermute, a crypto market maker known for managing large client trades.

This transfer may indicate a private client bought Bitcoin, suggesting increased demand. However, it could also represent a custody switch or Wintermute reallocating its own inventory. The blockchain displays these movements but cannot clarify the ownership or intent behind the new wallets.

ETF Flows and the Fed Could Help Bitcoin Break Through $87,700

ETF flows provide a more direct insight into market trends than on-chain data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold Bitcoin and trade like stocks, saw significant inflows of $526.6 million on October 19, then dropped sharply to $23.2 million on October 20, according to SoSoValue.

These inflows followed previous outflows of $487.1 million on October 7 and $261.5 million on October 14, with total net assets reaching $106.3 billion by October 20. However, on September 21, the biggest daily inflow of the past month, which totaled $999 million, did not carry Bitcoin through the zone. Bitcoin hit $87,397 that day but closed at $86,595, still below the resistance zone.

Additionally, K33 reports that Bitcoin’s 28-day volatility, a measure of price fluctuations, has dropped to 1.2%, nearing the year’s lowest levels. K33 expects price swings to increase ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next rate announcement and the upcoming November 3 midterm elections. The Fed has kept its upper policy rate at 4.00% since September 17, and periods of low volatility often precede significant price moves without signaling direction.

Presently, Bitcoin appears stable. It trades above its 50-day moving average of $81,567 and slightly below its 20-day average of $83,210. However, it has declined 0.7% in October and sits 33.9% below its all-time high, down 5.1% year-to-date.

Will Recent Buyers’ Selling Halt Bitcoin’s Rally at $87,700?

The Bitcoin cost basis of $87,700 is likely to limit the rally for now. Bitcoin has struggled to break through this level multiple times, ETF inflows have dropped sharply, and Wintermute’s recent Bitcoin transfer isn’t a confirmed sign of new buying. A nearly $1 billion inflow in September still failed to push the price past this resistance.

However, two key tests could alter the outlook. Several straight sessions of ETF inflows at or above the recent $526.6 million level, along with consecutive daily closes above $87,700, could turn that supply into support. A rejection there could send Bitcoin back toward its 50-day average of $81,567, about 2.3% below the current price.

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