Bernstein Is Calling $150,000 Bitcoin by December, But Prediction Markets Are Pricing $75,000

Bernstein has informed clients that Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is expected to hit $150,000 by the end of December. Currently, the coin trades at $76,941, meaning it would need to nearly double in value within 15 weeks.

Traders on Polymarket, who have invested $65.88 million, give this prediction a mere 3% chance. So who is more accurate: Bernstein’s forecast or the crowd that §1§wagered on it?

Bernstein’s Bold Bitcoin Prediction: $150,000 by Year-End

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team believe Bitcoin has reached a structural bottom, saying $150,000 is their base case for the end of 2026. They further project that Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 by mid-2027 and potentially $500,000 by 2029.

For this prediction to hold true, Bitcoin would have to gain 95% from its current price of $76,941, with only 15 weeks left in the year.

Bernstein’s case rests on two key factors, neither of which involves the Federal Reserve. First, rising US debt is driving investors toward assets that a government cannot print more of, known as the debasement trade. Second, institutional investments continue to flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold Bitcoin directly against traded shares on an exchange.

Analyzing the Market Response: Polymarket’s 3% Chance for Bitcoin’s Surge

Polymarket operates a market on Bitcoin’s price range for 2026. It pays out if a single one-minute candle on Binance reaches specified levels between November 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, with $80,000 and $90,000 already settled when Bitcoin traded higher in late 2025.

Above those levels, the odds dwindle significantly. Traders assign a 31% chance of Bitcoin hitting $95,000 and a 22% chance of it reaching $100,000. After that, the likelihood decreases sharply, with only a 12% chance at $110,000, 8% at $120,000, 3% at $150,000, and 1% at $200,000.

This puts Bernstein’s target at just 3%, slightly above the 1% chance of $200,000. Meanwhile, downside risks weigh heavily, with an 89% chance of Bitcoin dropping to $75,000 and a 64% chance of it falling to $70,000. Currently, Bitcoin trades only 2.6% above the first level.

Kalshi’s Insight: Bitcoin Expected to Close at $75,000 by December 31

Kalshi has set a market on Bitcoin’s price at the close of December 31, which represents a stricter test. Bitcoin must hold its value through the final hour of the year, rather than briefly hitting a number in October.

Traders have wagered more than $10.6 million on these contracts, with the consensus predicting a year-end close of $75,000. The $70,000 to $75,000 and $75,000 to $80,000 bands are closely aligned at the top, while a close above $100,000 is assigned a 1.9% probability.

A separate Kalshi market asks when Bitcoin will first cross $100,000. Traders see it at 6% by October 2026 and 10% by January 2027, increasing to 39% by March 2027 and 51% by June 2027. This suggests they believe the milestone is achievable, but it likely won’t happen within Bernstein’s timeframe.

Banks’ Bitcoin Predictions Fall Short for Three Consecutive Years

Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of December. Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, has repeatedly lowered their forecast: from $300,000 to $150,000 in December 2025, and then to $100,000 in February 2026, citing slower corporate treasury buying and a tougher macroeconomic environment.

Their published year-end targets have missed Bitcoin’s actual December 31 price in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Bitcoin closed at $87,703 at the end of 2025, approximately 12.5% below the bank’s $100,000 target. Citi has a more conservative estimate of $82,000, having cut its target twice from $143,000.

Traders recognized the drawdown earlier than the banks, with Bitcoin dropping below $62,000 on June 5, 2026, resulting in $1.5 billion in long liquidations, while bank targets above $100,000 were still being promoted.

The Crucial $95,000 Level: Key Insights on Bitcoin’s Future Direction

The key difference between the two perspectives hinges on the $95,000 level. Polymarket assigns a 31% chance of Bitcoin reaching this price, the highest odds for any upward movement, with the probabilities decreasing sharply for higher levels. If Bitcoin convincingly crosses this level, it could reactivate Bernstein’s entire forecast.

Conversely, if Bitcoin stays below $85,000 throughout November, the crowd’s estimate of a $75,000 close will likely prove more accurate, placing Bernstein among the 2026 targets that failed. Nonetheless, both sides agree that Bitcoin isn’t destined to remain at its current price forever. Bernstein projects $200,000 by mid-2027, while Kalshi suggests better-than-even odds of reaching $100,000 by June of that year, meaning the disagreement centers on a 15-week window.

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